[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110620
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON 11 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N10W 5N20W 2N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 40W...1N47W...TO THE
EQUATOR AT 52W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 9W AND 12W. WEAKENING
BUT STILL APPARENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 7N
BETWEEN 15W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 52W AT THE BRAZIL COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS AT THE BASE OF A
TROUGH...WHICH STRETCHES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IN EASTERN COLORADO TO WEST TEXAS TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...NORTH OF 18N EAST OF
130W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS INTERIOR
MEXICO...REACHES TEXAS...AND MOVES NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN COLORADO CYCLONIC CENTER.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS THE GULF WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER TO FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM
SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IN INTERIOR MEXICO IS COMBINING WITH A TROUGH/FRONT/
DRY LINE IN CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TEXAS...FROM JUST EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG
BEND NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE GULF WATERS WEST OF 28N83W 25N85W 22N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM NORTH CENTRAL COLOMBIA TO CENTRAL
NICARAGUA. HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...CURVING
NORTHEASTWARD...SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 83W. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER INTERIOR
COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 70W
AND 75W...AND IN WESTERN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 75W AND
77W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM A WESTERN ATLANTIC CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N64W TO 25N70W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N74W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N61W TO 26N64W 20N69W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TO 18N76W...JUST EAST OF JAMAICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 50 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N67W 26N60W BEYOND 32N56W.
THE NEXT BIG FEATURE IS THE CONTINUED DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N28W...ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...TO 24N37W 17N40W AND 12N47W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR IS WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 31N28W 12N47W TROUGH.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 29N TO 33N BETWEEN 23W AND 31W.

$$
MT


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