[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102329
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN 10 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N0 7N10W 5N23W 2N30W 2N45W EQ53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER AFRICA FROM
4.5N-11N BETWEEN 0-11W IS PROPAGATING W 10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE IS WITHIN 145 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND A BROAD
HEAT LOW OVER NRN MEXICO HAVE COMBINED IN THE PRES FIELD TO
PRODUCE A FAIRLY STRONG S/SE GRADIENT OVER THE W GULF WATERS
WITH SFC WINDS AT LEAST 20 KT RUNNING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO THE TX COAST. A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SNOWSTORM IN COLORADO REACHES SWD INTO N/CNTRL MEXICO WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING FROM NEAR MANZANILLO TO COASTAL TX AND
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE JET IS BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF AND INTENSE INLAND HEATING OVER
MEXICO IS BRINGING SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE JET DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH CITIES SUCH AS ZACATECAS
REPORTING WINDS UP TO 35 KT. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MODERATE-SIZED MID/UPPER RIDGE...WHICH IS
PRODUCING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TX COAST MON AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER E TX AND
THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

CARIBBEAN...
WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN AS A DEEP TROF OVER THE W ATLC WATERS SKIRTS
ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 13N AND SO THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE GREATER/LESSER ANTILLES
ISLAND CHAIN. MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS FOCUSED FROM JUST S OF PANAMA EWD ACROSS COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA...AND THIS IS WHERE THE STRONG DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS LOCATED. AN INTENSE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPING OVER FAR NRN COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA OVER LAKE
MARACAIBO FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 69W-75W WHILE MORE SCATTERED
MODERATE CLUSTERS ARE DOTTED ACROSS SRN VENEZUELA AND THE N HALF
OF COLOMBIA. OTHER TSTM CELLS HAVE DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY EXPAND NWD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY S OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE OCCLUDED LOW PRES AREA IS CENTERED NW OF BERMUDA NEAR
34N66W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA
ALONG 32N62W 27N63W 20N73W. A POST-FRONTAL TROF HAS BEEN
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW ALONG 32N65W 25N73W BUT APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE CIRCULAR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTEND UP TO 200 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT N OF
22N...LOCATED IN A FAVORABLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO
THE E OF THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROF WITH AXIS APPROACHING BERMUDA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FILLING IN BEHIND THE TROF AND IS SPREADING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
FARTHER E...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES NWD ALONG 55W TO NEAR 32N52W WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
MOISTURE LOCATED N OF 24N. THE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A SECOND
RATHER ELONGATED MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 29N32W WITH TROF STRETCHING
SW TO 13N41W. THIS IS REFLECTED AT THE SFC BY A WEAKENING 1014
MB LOW NEAR 28N38W AND OLD FRONTAL TROF ALONG 32N32W 27N27W
20N34W. THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING THE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION UP TO 250 NM N AND E OF A POINT
29N28W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS FAIRLY STEADY S OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM AND EXTENDS SW/NE ACROSS THE E ATLC ALONG A LINE BETWEEN
THE CAPE VERDE AND CANARY ISLANDS...WITH WINDS APPROACHING
90-100 KT AT 250 MB. THE UPPER FLOW IS MORE VARIABLE S OF 7N
WITH DEEP EASTERLIES BEGINNING TO CREEP N OF THE EQUATOR. ITCZ
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A NARROW BAND ACROSS THE AXIS
PRIMARILY E OF 30W...IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH
POKES AWAY FROM AFRICA ALONG 8N10W 4N30W.

$$
BERG


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