[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 10 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N28W 1N50W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF 3N39W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
BETWEEN 3.5N-7.5N FROM 10W-16W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 2.5N22W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 6N20W 5N26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH
GENERALLY E TO SE WINDS.  DEVELOPING SNOWSTORM OVER COLORADO HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED PRESSURES OVER TEXAS... CAUSING
INCREASING RETURN FLOW SE WINDS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL GULF.
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE LIKELY FOR THE E GULF TODAY WITH BROKEN
CIRRUS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING OVERHEAD OF THE W GULF
ALONG WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS.   THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON THE NW SIDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WHICH HAS TAKEN OVER THE UPPER LEVELS SINCE
THE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR BERMUDA HAS LEFT THE REGION.  COLD FRONT IS
ON SCHEDULE TO THE ENTER THE NW GULF ON MON WITH TSTMS MOST
LIKELY IN THE NRN GULF NEAR THE UPPER SUPPORT.  FRONT SHOULD
SLIDE THRU ABOUT HALF THE REGION BY LATE TUE AND FINALLY PUSH IN
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY THU WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A TSTM.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP IN THE SW GULF
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK UPPER TROUGHING LIES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH FLAT UPPER
RIDGING CONTROLLING THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN.  MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH FROM E CUBA TO 16N80W
IS KEEPING THE AREA VERY QUIET WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER RAIN
SHOWERS FROM A REMNANT DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN CUBA
AND JAMAICA.  OTHERWISE THE TRADES ARE A BIT ENHANCED IN THE SE
CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOSTLY S OF BARBADOS... AND THE
RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY OR A BIT
HIGHER WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NE.  THE TAIL
END OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC COULD UP THE RAIN CHANCES
FOR HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND IN PUERTO RICO BY MON WITH MOST
OF THE MOISTURE/SHOWERS REMAINS W OF ANTIGUA.  A WEAK COLD FRONT
COULD INFLUENCE THE NW CARIBBEAN ON THU WITH A HIGHER CHANCES OF
RAIN.. OTHERWISE NO SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH AN AMPLIFIED SPRING
PATTERN WITH TWO TROUGHS AND TWO RIDGES.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS NEAR BERMUDA...ANOTHER IN A STRING OF CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
AREAS THAT FORM OVER THE CENTRAL US... SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND
TAKE 7-10 DAYS TO TRAVERSE THE ATLC USUALLY BETWEEN 30N-40N.
THIS LOW IS NO EXCEPTION AS IT MOVES EWD 15-20 KT WITH MID/UPPER
TROUGHING SSW TO E CUBA.  DIVERGENCE NEAR THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM 31N63W 25N67W TO THE TURKS/CAICOS IS PRODUCING
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WITH 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSTMS S OF 25N WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE FRONT.  MID/UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE W-CENTRAL ATLC
WITH AXIS FROM ABOUT 20N60W TO 32N50W.  CIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
AND RIDGE AXIS.  SECOND LOW... A VERTICALLY-0STACKED SYSTEM NEAR
29N37W...CONTROLS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC.  TROUGH
FROM THE LOW EXTENDS TO 19N36W THEN 13N42W WITH MOST AREAS W OF
THE TROUGH AXIS EXPERIENCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER COLD-AIR ALOFT IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTMS NEAR THE
CORE OF THE LOW N OF 27N BETWEEN 29W-35W.  ASSOCIATED FRONTS
HAVE DISSIPATED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
60 NM OF LINE 27N26W 31N26W.  OTHERWISE MID/UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG ABOUT 10W INFLUENCING
AREAS E OF A CAPE VERDE/CANARY ISLANDS LINE WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS.  ITCZ CONVECTION IS FAVORED IN THE E ATLC WITH A BIT OF
UPPER DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE AXIS.  THE TROPICAL ATLC HAS MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC LOW AND A
MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM 3N40W TO 6N60W IN NE VENEZUELA.  SATELLITE
PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A HABOOB (DUST
STORM) HAS FORMED OVER THE SAHARA N OF 20N E OF 10W AND COULD
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NE ATLC TOMORROW... FORCED WESTWARD BY A
BUILDING 1038 MB HIGH A FEW HUNDRED MILES NW OF SPAIN.

$$
BLAKE

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