[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN 10 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N10W 5N20W 4N30W 3N40W 2N50W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 2.5N TO 7N BETWEEN 11W AND 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W...BETWEEN
33W AND 40W...AND BETWEEN 47W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE U.S.A. TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS SETS UP A RIDGE-TO-TROUGH
SCENARIO. MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INTERIOR MEXICO
FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W. A GENTLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 93W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM A WESTERN
ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A MEAN POSITION NEAR
34N70W TO 27N73W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N81W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 30N91W 22N81W 25N70W 31N63W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N66W TO 30N66W
TO 24N70W TO CUBA NEAR 21N75W. DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 21N75W
TO 20N78W AND 19N82W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N48W TO 20N60W
TOWARD THE CENTRAL NICARAGUA COAST...LEADS TO BROAD AND GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 34N70W TO 27N73W TO CUBA NEAR 22N81W IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
21N75W TO 20N78W AND 19N82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W
AND 81W...FROM NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA AND POSSIBLY
JAMAICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM A WESTERN ATLANTIC CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A MEAN POSITION NEAR 34N70W TO 27N73W
TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N81W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
NORTH OF 30N91W 22N81W 25N70W 31N63W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N66W TO 30N66W TO 24N70W TO CUBA
NEAR 21N75W. DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 21N75W TO 20N78W AND 19N82W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W...FROM
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA AND POSSIBLY JAMAICA.
THE NEXT BIG FEATURE IS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N35W...ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO
23N34W 20N41W AND 16N51W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
WITHIN 500 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 30N37W 18N48W TROUGH. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 33N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W...WITHIN 60
TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N32W 26N27W 30N27W...AND FROM 30N
TO 36N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W.

$$
MT



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