[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN 10 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N10W 5N20W 4N30W 3N40W 2N50W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 2.5N TO 5.5N BETWEEN 10W AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 25W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION OF THE U.S.A. TO THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SETS
UP A RIDGE-TO-TROUGH SCENARIO. A GENTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 95W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM A WESTERN ATLANTIC
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N70W TO 29N74W TO 24N84W IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS NORTH OF 29N94W 23N84W 25N72W 30N65W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N67W TO 30N67W TO 26N70W...TO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT 21N76W TO 19N92W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
SOME SHOWERS HAD BEEN OCCURRING FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 97W AND
98W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N48W TO 20N60W
TOWARD THE CENTRAL NICARAGUA COAST...LEADS TO BROAD AND GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. ANY ITCZ SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN DISSIPATING ACROSS COSTA RICA. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 21N76W TO 19N92W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM A WESTERN ATLANTIC
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N70W TO 29N74W TO 24N84W IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS NORTH OF 29N94W 23N84W 25N72W 30N65W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N67W TO 30N67W TO 26N70W...
TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W.
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 21N76W TO 19N92W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SHOWERS HAD BEEN OCCURRING FROM 20N TO 21N
BETWEEN 97W AND 98W. THE NEXT BIG FEATURE IS THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N37W...ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...TO 23N37W AND 18N48W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR IS WITHIN 500 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 30N37W 18N48W TROUGH.

$$
MT


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