[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100013
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT 09 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N30W 2N50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 11W-19W...AND FROM
1N-5N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXTENDS S OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN GULF.  A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF FROM 20N-27N W OF 90W MOVING E.
EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES MIGRATE E OVER THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO JAMAICA ALONG 21N77W
19N82W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 70W-85W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH LITTLE
UPSTREAM MOISTURE ADVECTION.  A WIND MAXIMA OF 70-80 KT EXTENDS
FROM N NICARAGUA TO HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
19N60W.  EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER
HISPANIOLA IN 24 HOURS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
ESPECIALLY N COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 2100 UTC COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N69W
21N77W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND 120 NM E OF FRONT.  OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS EXTEND 240 NM E OF FRONT.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N53W.  A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N38W.  A COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM 30N34W TO 24N34W
19N40W DISSIPATING TO 16N50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT N OF 23N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN PREVAILS REFLECTING
THE SURFACE FEATURES.  A DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
...RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E CARIBBEAN NEWD TO BEYOND
32N55W...AND A SECOND DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 30N35W.  AN E/W RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF
15N WITH AXIS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 20W-60W.  EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC
FRONT TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES EWD EXTENDING FROM 30N60W TO
HISPANIOLA IN 24 HOURS.  EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
DRIFT SLOWLY SWD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

$$
FORMOSA


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