[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON 11 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N10W 5N20W 2N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 40W...1N47W...TO THE
EQUATOR AT 52W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 20W
AND 30W...AND SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 30W AND 52W AT THE BRAZIL
COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS AT THE BASE OF
A TROUGH...WHICH STRETCHES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IN EASTERN COLORADO AND THE KANSAS BORDER TO WEST TEXAS TO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...NORTH OF
18N EAST OF 130W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES
ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO...REACHES TEXAS...AND MOVES NORTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER CYCLONIC CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS THE GULF
WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER TO FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS.
A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN INTERIOR MEXICO IS
COMBINING WITH A TROUGH/FRONT/DRY LINE IN CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN
PART OF TEXAS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 30N96W
33N94W. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVER ALL THE GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM NORTH CENTRAL COLOMBIA TO CENTRAL
NICARAGUA. HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...CURVING
NORTHEASTWARD...SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN NORTHWESTERN
COASTAL COLOMBIA FROM 6.5N TO 9.5N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W...AND
FROM 2.5N TO 5N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM A WESTERN ATLANTIC CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N62W TO 25N70W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N74W. THIS CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N60W 23N64W 20N70W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N70W...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
HISPANIOLA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TO 18N76W...JUST EAST OF
JAMAICA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
19N63W 24N59W 28N57W BEYOND 32N55W. THE NEXT BIG FEATURE IS THE
CONTINUED DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 31N28W...ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO 23N35W 16N38W AND
10N45W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE 31N28W 10N45W TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 29N TO
34N BETWEEN 23W AND 31W.

$$
MT



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