[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090014
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI 08 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 3N30W 2N50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 35W-45W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 13W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
24N94W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER W OF 90W.  A COLD FRONT HAS NOW
TRAVERSED THE ENTIRE STATE OF FLORIDA AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO W CUBA TO NEAR BELIZE ALONG 25N80W 22N83W
17N87W.  A THIN LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS 60 NM E OF
FRONT.  SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER
THE NE GULF N OF 22N AND E OF 90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO W OF 90W.  A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N AND W OF 90W MOVING E.  A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
34N80W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE GULF IN 24
HOURS WITH AXIS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO NEAR BELIZE ALONG
22N83W 17N87W.  A THIN LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS 60 NM E
OF FRONT.  LOW LEVEL TRADEWINDS PREVAIL E OF FRONT.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 75W-79W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
COSTA RICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS FROM TRINIDAD TO COSTA RICA ALONG 10N60W
9N85W.  TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE S OF 15N IN
SW-W FLOW.  EXPECT RESIDUAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER E CUBA IN 24
HOURS DUE TO THE FRONT...AND EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN
S OF 12N MAINLY DUE TO DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW .

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N77W TO 25N80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS 240 NM E OF FRONT.
A 1027 MB HIGH IS NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 36N55W.  A 1013 MB LOW IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N40W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
S FROM THE LOW TO 26N44W.  ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW IS FURTHER NE AT
34N36W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO 30N36W 25N40W
DISSIPATING TO 20N50W.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 26N28W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  A SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 3N15W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS
WITHIN 420 NM OF THE CENTER.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO OVER THE
TROPICS FROM EQ-15N BETWEEN 22W-60W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 8N.
EXPECT W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 30N72W IN 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION EXTENDING S TO THE BAHAMAS.

$$
FORMOSA


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