[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081721
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI 08 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N35W 1N50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
WEAK/MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N W OF 35W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 6N10W 3N20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW THAT IS SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN OVER THE
SE UNITED STATES HAS CLEARED THE MAJORITY OF GULF WATER SAVE THE
FAR SE GULF.  ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR WEST PALM
BEACH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN
60 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING BY THE EVENING
OVER THE GULF.  GENERALLY DRY ZONAL UPPER FLOW LIES OVER THE
GULF WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM TEXAS AHEAD OF A
SPRING COLORADO SNOWSTORM FORMING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN TEXAS AHEAD OF
THE RELATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION PROBABLY ON MON WITH
TSTMS IN THE NRN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FLAT MID/UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE AREA FROM AN AXIS ENTERING THE
REGION IN NE VENEZUELA THRU SE CENTRAL AMERICA.  DIFFLUENT FLOW
IS FAVORING SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N WITH
GENERALLY DRY ZONAL FLOW OVER WATER.  WEAKENING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NEAR BELIZE CITY WITH ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE BOUNDARY.  MOST OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE QUIET WITH LIMITED LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE.  COMPUTER MODELS HINT THAT RAIN CHANCES COULD
INCREASE SOME IN THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN... OTHERWISE PLEASANT
SPRING WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BIGGEST CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THE INTRUSION OF THE
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE UNITED STATES BRINGING A FRONT INTO THE
REGION.  FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA NEAR 31N79W TO NEAR WEST
PALM BEACH AS THE LIFT/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 24N79W TO
31N76W.  OTHERWISE MID/UPPER RIDGING ALONG ABOUT 65W CONTROLS
THE W ATLC W OF 58W WITH A BROAD TROUGH FROM 32N39W 20N55W
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL ATLC.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N39W TO 25N41W DISSIPATING TO 22N50W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 30W-50W WITH SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS N OF 22N BETWEEN 30W-70W.  HIGH-OVER-LOW PATTERN IS OVER
THE E ATLC WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING ALONG NW AFRICA N OF 20N AND A
TROUGH FORMING BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND W AFRICA NEAR
20W S OF 18N.  DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS HELPING
SOME ITCZ TSTMS.  MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTROLS THE W ATLC WITH A
RIDGE AXIS FROM 2N30W TO NE VENEZUELA.  STRONG LOWER
CONVERGENCE/UPPER DIVERGENCE PAIR NEAR THE EQUATOR IS SPAWNING
TSTMS S OF 3N W OF 35W.

$$
BLAKE

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