[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT 09 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N10W 6N20W 3N30W 2N40W 1N50W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ONE CLUSTER FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 14W
AND 17W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 140 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 7N11W 5N16W 3N23W...WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 3N23W 4N30W...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 34W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 27N128W BEYOND 32N124W...
AS CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA...LEADING TO
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW COMES OFF MEXICO...ENTERS THE GULF...AND BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
ALONG 80W FROM 31N TO 32N JUST OFFSHORE NEAR THE GEORGIA/
SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS CENTER TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W. THE FRONT
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE NEAR 23N82W AND CONTINUES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 20N85W AND 17N87W. A SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
22N93W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS COVERING THE GULF WEST OF 90W...
AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ON SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CENTER AND IN THE TROUGH MOVE
EASTWARD WITH THE WHOLE SYSTEM.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO
WESTERN CUBA. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH EVENTUALLY IS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W TO 20N85W AND 17N87W. A LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N48W TO
20N60W TOWARD THE CENTRAL NICARAGUA COAST. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS PASSING OVER THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE AREA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...ALREADY APPEARING TO BE WEAK IN
NATURE...ARE ALONG THE BELIZE COAST FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN
88W AND 89W

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG 80W FROM 31N TO 32N JUST
OFFSHORE NEAR THE GEORGIA/ SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. A TROUGH RUNS
FROM THIS CENTER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA. THIS
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH
32N76W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR
22N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. OTHER
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY WITH THUNDER...ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.  THE NEXT BIG FEATURE IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N39W
TO 26N45W AND 16N50W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT WITHIN 340 NM FROM THE CENTER NORTH OF
18N BETWEEN 60W. SURFACE COLD FROM 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 35N36W...TO 30N36W TO 26N37W TO 22N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS NORTH
OF 27N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W. AN ATLANTIC 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 31N39W...WITH A TROUGH TRAILING FROM IT NEAR
24N44W. SURFACE RIDGE FROM 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 36N55W TO 21N64W.
$$

MT

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