[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU 07 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 2N30W 3N50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 13W-19W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF S
AMERICA FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 35W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 30N84W 25N87W 16N91W.  A SQUALL
LINE IS E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
FRONT N OF 25N.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE MOVING E.  FAIR SKIES AND NW
WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW
IS OVER TENNESSEE.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  LIFT/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS FORCING
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG THE SQUALL LINE.  EXPECT ONLY
RESIDUAL CONVECTION OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS IN 24 HOURS AS THE
FRONT FULL EXITS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
TO INCLUDE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN
72W-76W.  CENTRAL TO EASTERN CUBA HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.  HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ALSO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO WEAK
DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER N PORTIONS OF S AMERICA RIDGING WNW TO
GUATEMALA.  DIFFLUENT FLOW IS FAVORING CONVECTION IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW OVER WATER DUE TO
THE FLATNESS OF THE RIDGE.  EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER MUCH OF
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE FRONT.
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ALSO LIKELY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N63W.  1012 MB LOW IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N42W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW
TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 29N43W 24N50W 20N60W DISSIPATING TO
19N64W.  A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E AT 25N37W.  A 1012 MB
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N23W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM
THE LOW TO 28N24W 25N27W.  SOME AFRICAN DUST S OF 20N E OF 35W
MAY BE ASSISTING IN KEEPING THE AREA MUCH LESS CLOUDY THAN
AVERAGE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N
OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 30W-60W.  AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS AT
32N41W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA AT
10N10W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO 10N60W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 20N.

$$
FORMOSA



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