[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080522
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI 08 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N21W 3N40W 3N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE
1N43W-3N50W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE S OF 6N FROM
10W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A POTENT S STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS THE PRIMARY
WEATHER MAKER TODAY WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF
OVER NE FLORIDA EXTENDING SSW ALONG 26N85W TO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO NEAR 20N89W. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
LIFT/DYNAMICS ARE REMAIN CONFINED OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WITH
A SEVERE SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 30N78W
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO 25N83W IN
THE GULF. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E INTO THE W ATLC IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLEAR FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
FRONT CLEARING FLORIDA LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE GULF CLEARING SKIES WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES THAN THE FRONT OF LAST WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PORTIONS OF S AMERICA.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS CREATING AN AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OFF NW
COLOMBIA TO OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 12N. ELSEWHERE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LARGELY LIMITED EXCEPT OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLAND...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHERE ISOLATED...MAINLY
SHALLOW TOPPED...SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE
OF ISLANDS. THIS POOLING OF MOIST AIR IS THE RESULT OF REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAD DISSIPATED DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN TODAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE GULF.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE ATLC WATERS WITH A
NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 70W AHEAD OF POTENT S STREAM
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW/COLD FRONT OVER THE SE UNITED STATES/GULF OF
MEXICO...BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM
35W-65W...AND WEAK RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG
23W. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE OF BERMUDA SW INTO THE W ATLC
TO OVER THE BAHAMAS. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA FROM A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW JUST N OF THE REGION THROUGH
32N39W EXTENDING SW TO 23N50W THEN DISSIPATING N OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE LIMITING CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT TO ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AROUND THE SURFACE LOW N OF 31N. OVER THE E ATLC...THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS FORCED THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N23W TO THE NE. THUS LEAVING
ONLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE LOW. VERY DRY AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH
THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR/DUST ORIGINATING FROM AFRICA IS LIMITING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC.

$$
WALLACE




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