[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU 07 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N25W 2N28W 3N52W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 3N W OF 48W AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
13W-20W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS IN OTHER AREAS
W OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW IS OVER W TENNESSEE DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT THRU THE NW GULF ENTERING JUST SE OF PENSACOLA SW TO
26N89W 23N93W 19N93W JUST PAST THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.  LIFT/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS FORCING
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION NEAR A SQUALL LINE FROM 27N86W TO
31N83W INTO GEORGIA.  TSTMS ARE FAVORED N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED THRU FLORIDA
TOMORROW.  OTHERWISE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR CONTINUES TO POUR
OFFSHORE OF TEXAS WITH COLD AIR NOT AS STRONG AS THE LAST
FRONT.  RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN TEXAS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER N PORTIONS OF S AMERICA RIDGING NW TO W CUBA.
DIFFLUENT FLOW IS FAVORING SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 11N WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW OVER WATER DUE TO THE FLATNESS
OF THE RIDGE. WEAK DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR PUERTO RICO
IS CAUSING AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN IN PUERTO RICO NE THRU THE
REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NW OF ANTIGUA.  SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPSTREAM FRONT OVER THE GULF. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD
RESULT IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CUBA THROUGH LATE
FRI.  A ROUND OF TSTMS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OTHERWISE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
OVERNIGHT.  INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEARS FROM THE SE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE ATLC FROM 40W-70W WITH
RIDGING OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W AND ZONAL FLOW/GENTLE RIDGING
OVER THE E SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF 40W.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM 31N45W TO 23N57W W
TO THE BAHAMAS WITH GENERALLY FAIR SKIES.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
ON THE FAIR END OF THE DISSIPATED PORTION OF THE FRONT FROM
23N57W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN
19N-23N FROM 58W-66W.  WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE LOW HAS SPUN UP ON
THE FRONT NEAR 32N46W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 30N BETWEEN
40W-50W.  BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE E ATLC WITH
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS QUITE WEAK WITH
NO MARINE LAYER PRESENT.  ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS
WITH ONE WEAK TROUGH JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDES FROM 20N28W
10N36W.   MID/UPPER RIDGING IS EXPANDING NEAR AFRICA WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTROLLING THE AREA E AND S OF THE CAPE
VERDES.  OTHERWISE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES NEAR THE ITCZ FROM
3N35W 8N57W HELPING TO FUEL SOME ITCZ TSTMS.  SOME AFRICAN DUST
S OF 20N E OF 35W MAY BE ASSISTING IN KEEPING THE AREA MUCH LESS
CLOUDY THAN AVERAGE.

$$
BLAKE


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