[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU 07 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N30W 4N47W 3N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 10W-20W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 30W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A POTENT S STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THE PRIMARY WEATHER
MAKER TODAY WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF OVER
MOBILE BAY IN ALABAMA AT 07/0900 UTC EXTENDING SW TO 24N93W THEN
STATIONARY INTO S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W THEN NW ALONG THE E SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
LIFT/DYNAMICS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED OVER THE SE UNITED STATES
AND THE NE GULF WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND E ALABAMA INTO GEORGIA. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIP SE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO SUPPORTING INCREASING SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW. FRONT SHOULD
CLEARS S FLORIDA LATE TOMORROW... ALBEIT IN A WEAKER STATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER N PORTIONS OF S AMERICA. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS CREATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM OVER NW
COLOMBIA INTO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N. ELSEWHERE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LARGELY LIMITED EXCEPT FOR A VERY WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST N OF THE AREA OVER PUERTO RICO TO
HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA. ISOLATED...MAINLY SHALLOW TOPPED...
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF ISLANDS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM FRONT OVER THE
GULF. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CUBA THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE E EXTENT OF THIS WEAKENING FRONT WILL
PUSH S ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS...TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IS
PUSHES S INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN PREVAILS OVER
MUCH OF THE ATLC WATERS WITH A NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG 78W AHEAD OF POTENT S STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW/COLD
FRONT OVER THE SE UNITED STATES/GULF OF MEXICO...MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG 45W...RIDGE AXIS ALONG 34W...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC N OF 23N E OF 26W. THESE FEATURES BECOME
SHARPER N OF THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING NEAR
32N48W...ALONG THE ESTABLISHED CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WHICH
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N49W EXTENDING SW TO 26N52W THEN
BECOMING STATIONARY TO 21N59W AND DISSIPATING JUST OFF THE N
COAST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE NE COAST OF HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 31N BETWEEN
COLD FRONT AND 44W IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF THE FRONT OVER PUERTO RICO TO
CUBA. POST-FRONTAL 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 NM
NW OF BERMUDA. OVER THE E ATLC...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N23W SW TO 27N26W. VERY DRY AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS
WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR/DUST ORIGINATING FROM AFRICA IS
LIMITING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. ITCZ ACTIVITY IS
CONFINED S OF 6N.

$$
WALLACE



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