[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST WED 06 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N30W INTO S AMERICA NEAR
FRENCH GUIANA.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 30W-40W.  SIMILAR ACTIVITY S OF 6N BETWEEN 40W-55W
INCLUDING N PORTIONS OF S AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A POTENT S STREAM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THE PRIMARY
WEATHER TODAY WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA OVER
LOUISIANA AND EXTENDING SW INTO MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE.
THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT/DYNAMICS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED
OVER THE S UNITED STATES WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE S EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVE WEATHER CLIPS THE N PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE LOUISIANA
AND NEAR SHORE WATERS.  A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEWD TO THE SE TIP OF
LOUISIANA.  THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS SUPPORTING INCREASING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GLFMEX.  THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE E GULF AND FLORIDA THU AND FRI.
FRONT CLEARS S FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY...ALBEIT IN A MUCH WEAKER
STATE.  SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE OVER N FLORIDA MAY PREVENT THE
RAPID CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER N PORTIONS OF S AMERICA.  DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS CREATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER PANAMA/COSTA RICA....NW
COLOMBIA...AND THE E PACIFIC N OF 3N E OF 83W.  ELSEWHERE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LARGELY LIMITED EXCEPT FOR A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA.  SCATTERED...MAINLY SHALLOW
TOPPED...SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF
FRONT.  THE FRONT WILL LOSE IS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD
OVER CUBA AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM FRONT OVER THE GLFMEX.
THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CUBA THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY.  MEANWHILE...THE E EXTENT OF THIS WEAKENING FRONT WILL
PUSH SWD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THU.   LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS JUST NE OF THE
AREA.  EXPECT SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS...TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IS
PUSHES SWD INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH OMEGA TYPE PATTERN PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF
THE ATLC WATERS WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
55W...SHARP RIDGE AXIS ALONG 45W...AND BROAD TROUGH OVER THE E
ATLC N OF 20N E OF 35W.  NEARLY ALL OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
CONFINED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS
THE AREA NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS SWD ALONG 22N60W THEN WEAKENING
TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO E
CUBA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED N OF 26N
BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND 45W.  SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF FRONT FROM 20N-26N.  ELSEWHERE
ALONG FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
BOUNDARY.  POST-FRONTAL 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NW OF BERMUDA MOVING EWD APPROXIMATELY 10
KT.  PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW FORMING N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N40W THIS
WEEKEND.  THIS PATTERN WOULD PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  OVER
THE E ATLC...VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS ORIGINATING FROM
AFRICA IS LIMITING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.  ITCZ
ACTIVITY IS CONFINED S OF 6N.

$$
RHOME


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