[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061022
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EST WED 06 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 6N16W 4N28W 3N47W 2N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS
FROM 29W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S
OF 5N W OF 48W AND S OF 1N FROM 38W-46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 7W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1027
MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N73W ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO OVER
ALABAMA WITH STRONG SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...FLATTEN MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG
82W WHILE STRONG DEEP LAYERED LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES GRADUALLY MOVING E. THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT REMAINS INLAND OVER TEXAS AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING. CONFLUENT FLOW OVER MEXICO IS
CREATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND GENERATING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST N OF 28N. PATCHES OF
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF
90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPSTREAM UPPER DRY/STABLE AIR IS RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM OVER SE VENEZUELA ACROSS COLOMBIA TO OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. UPPER SSW FLOW IS ADVECTING
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO OVER
S CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF
COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 10N. TYPICAL
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POOLING MOIST...LOWER
LEVEL AIR OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA RESULTING IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 75W. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH 32N52W ALONG 24N58W TO 20N67W
BECOMING STATIONARY WESTWARD TO E CUBA. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYERED LOW IS WELL N OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT REMAINING. THUS...DRIER UPPER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE
REGION LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT N OF 30N. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...RIDGING HAS
AMPLIFIED BETWEEN THE TWO DEEP LAYERED LOWS EXTENDING FROM
23N50W TO BEYOND 32N48W. DEEP LAYERED LOW REMAINS IN THE E ATLC
ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE AREA NOW NEAR 32N30W WITH A 1007 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N23W TO 24N28W. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/LIFT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN THUS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WELL N OF THE REGION. OVER
THE FAR E ATLC...LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS SE OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 8N14W WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OVER AFRICA. RESULTING PATTERN IS
PRODUCING DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS BUT A WEAK JET WITH WINDS LESS
THAN 70 KT IS ADVECTING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE W SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

$$
WALLACE


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