[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED 06 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 4N15W 3N40W 2N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 40W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N92W 21N96W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EXTEND 240
NM E OF FRONT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COASTS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND N FLORIDA N
OF 29N BETWEEN 85W-90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A POTENT S STREAM
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES NEAR 36N94W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S TO S MEXICO
NEAR 20N98W. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT/DYNAMICS ARE
CURRENTLY CONFINED OVER THE S UNITED STATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND IS MOVING E.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION
MOSTLY OVER N FLORIDA...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BRISK TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.  ELSEWHERE...BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM N VENEZUELA TO BEYOND
COSTA RICA.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ARE PRIMARILY
N OF THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SW-W.  PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
ADVECTING WITH THE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 13N.
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND HEAVY
CONVECTION OVER CUBA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N70W.  A WEAK 1016 MB
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N52W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S TO ANOTHER WEAK 1016 MB LOW NEAR 22N60W.  A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N73W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED N OF 26N BETWEEN THE
COLD FRONT AND 40W.  A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
32N28W.  OVER THE E ATLC...VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ORIGINATING FROM AFRICA IS LIMITING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH OMEGA
TYPE PATTERN PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 53W...SHARP RIDGE AXIS ALONG
40W...AND BROAD TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net