[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032304
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN 03 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 2N30W 2N50W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 15W-30W AND S OF 3N BETWEEN
30W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST ATLANTIC...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IS TAKING OVER THE
GULF AS THE CUT-OFF E COAST STORM EXITS... LEAVING SOME
TROUGHING OVER THE EXTREME NW ATLC AND FLORIDA.  FOR NOW VERY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF
WHILE RETURNING SLY FLOW WITH SOME SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG S TEXAS.  COLD FRONT THAT PASSED FLORIDA
YESTERDAY EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA TO THE TURKS/CAICOS
ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 25N
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT
N OF 25N.   1023 MB HIGH NOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF A COUPLE
MILES S OF MOBILE SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THE
CENTER WILL ENTER THE ATLC BY MON NIGHT.  E TO SE FLOW IS LIKELY
FOR MON WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS IN THE W GULF.  THE NEXT COLD
FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE AND SHOULD ENTER THE NW GULF WED
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD.
THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK AS POWERFUL AS THE PAST FRONT WITH MORE
LIMITED UPPER DYNAMICS AND PROBABLY WON'T MAKE IT THRU THE SW
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THICK CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 19N BEHIND A
SLOWLY DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
21N79W TO NE HONDURAS.  A FEW SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE
FRONT N OF 19N ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THIS FRONT IS
LIKELY TO BE LESS OF PLAYER OVER THE COMING DAYS AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY BACK
INTO BELIZE FOR LATE MON.  SOME INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
OCCUR FOR HISPANIOLA LATE MON AND IN PUERTO RICO FOR WED/THU AS
THE MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA.  OTHERWISE MID/UPPER HIGH OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR
8N72W CONTROLS THE FLOW PATTERN WITH GENERALLY DRY ZONAL
CONDITIONS OVER WATER.  MOISTURE IS INCREASING IN THE
LOW/MID-LEVELS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY
TO INCREASE IN THAT VICINITY.  NO FRONTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
REGION THIS WEEK.

REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILS
OVER THE REST OF THE ATLC WITH RIDGING BETWEEN 55W-70W EXTENDING
FROM NEAR PUERTO RICO THRU 31N58W.  BROAD TROUGHING LIES OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 28W-55W ANCHORED BY A STRONG CUT-OFF
LOW NEAR 34N41W WITH TROUGH AXIS SW TO 10N57W IN THE DEEP
TROPICS.  ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
NEAR 31N34W SW TO 26N41W 25N50W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS N OF
29N BETWEEN 31W-34W.  TSTMS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS AN UPPER FEATURE
ENHANCES LIFT/SUPPORT NEAR THE FRONT N OF 26N.  CUT-OFF LOW WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT... FINALLY LEAVING THE AREA AROUND THU BUT
THEN PROBABLY FOLLOWED IN ITS FOOTSTEPS BY ANOTHER ONE..ALBEIT
PROBABLY WEAKER...BY THE WEEKEND.  GENTLE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER
THE E ATLC FROM THE CAPE VERDES THRU THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THE AREA WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.  ZONAL FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS N OF 10N E OF 45W
WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  1022
MB HIGH IS NEAR 35N18W RIDGING SW TO 29N23W 23N29W WITH
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AS MORE TYPICAL MARINE LAYER REDEVELOPS N
OF A LINE FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 20N25N 32N28W.  MID/UPPER
HIGH IS NEAR 7N35W IN THE DEEP TROPICS RIDGING W TO SOUTH
AMERICA.

$$
BLAKE

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