[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN 03 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 6N10W 3N20W 3N30W 2N40W 2N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 12W AND 30W...BECOMING ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 30W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS
AS PART OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH THROUGH 32N73W 27N78W 22N85W 19N87W. THIS DEEP
LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH JUST TRAVERSED
THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS FRONT NOW
RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO CUBA
AND NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS INTERIOR
MEXICO AND REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF...NORTH
OF 25N BETWEEN 93W AND 108W. SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 1024 MB
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N90W TO A GULF
OF MEXICO 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N92W...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19N96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA STARTS OUT
NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA AND MAKES ITS WAY TO
SOUTHERN HAITI...BEFORE ENTERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AS MORE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO 19N81W...TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA...CUTTING ACROSS NICARAGUA TO
NORTHEASTERN EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N88W. STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM
14N88W...THROUGH SOUTHERN GUATEMALA TO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR
16N93W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE
FRONT ARE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W
TO THE EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA BORDER. HIGH
CLOUDS...FROM THE BLOWOFF FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA/NORTHERN
COLOMBIA THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE SPREAD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
REACHING 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT IS DEFINED BY A BAND OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 22N78W AT THE CUBA COAST...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO 26N70W TO
30N65W BEYOND 32N64W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THIS
CLOUDINESS NORTH OF 23N. THE 03/1200 UTC FRONT POSITION IS
THROUGH 32N67W TO 27N70W...THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO CUBA NEAR
21N78W...AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN
STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 79W. DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
25W AND 54W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS NEAR 34N42W. THE SURFACE 1000 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR
34N43W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE SURFACE LOW CENTER PASSES
THROUGH 32N34W TO 27N40W TO 25N50W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
ALONG 30N32W 24N40W 20N51W. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEPARATES
THESE TWO AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW. A SURFACE 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N59W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE RUNS
FROM AN 1023 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 34N18W THROUGH 30N20W TO 16N36W
TO 15N50W.

$$
MT

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