[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031026
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN 03 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N30W 3N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 16W-26W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN
55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ENTIRE GLFMEX IS NOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE SURFACE RIDING WITH
A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS.  MODERATE POST-FRONTAL
NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE E HALF OF THE GULF WITH VEERING
WINDS OVER THE W GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BUILDING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING WESTWARD OVER MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WHILE A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED LOW LIFT NEWD ALONG
THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  RESULTING FLOW BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES IS CONFLUENT CREATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS.  IN FACT...THE ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE IS A
DISSIPATING FIELD OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS S OF 25N.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EWD CROSSING
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE MONDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
BECOME ESTABLISH RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NW PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77W TO E HONDURAS.  EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER HAS DISSIPATED BUT A LARGE
AREA OF OVERCAST CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN UP TO 275
NM NW OF FRONT SAVE W CUBA WHERE UPSTREAM DRY AIR IS RESULTING
IN RAPID CLEARING FROM W TO E.  STRONG NLY FLOW IS NOTED BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH TYPICAL TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE EWD THIS MORNING
BECOMING STATIONARY FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDINESS
WITHIN 200-300 NM NW OF FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG COLD IS PUSHING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WATERS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W SWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77W. OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF FRONT. STRONG POST-FRONTAL NLY FLOW
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DOMINATE ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT.  FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EWD EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE
TURKS/CAICOS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND 32N59W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE BY
MON MORNING.  UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE
FRONT.  OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...WELL-DEFINED DEEP-LAYERED LOW
NEAR 35N44W CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE AREA WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 32N36W 27N44W.
WHILE ONLY MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOTED...UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS/LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES.  EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM
34N30W TO 23N40W BY THIS AFTERNOON.  OVER THE E ATLANTIC...LARGE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  RESULTING PATTERN IS
PRODUCING DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES OR CONVECTION.  S OF THE RIDGE
AXIS....THE ITCZ REMAINS ACTIVE DUE IN PART TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE.

$$
RHOME



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