[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030508
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN 03 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N1W 2N30W 4N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 5N BETWEEN 20W-40W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 40W-50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 55W-60W INCLUDING GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH MARCHED ACROSS THE GLFMEX AND FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY HAS EXITED THE AREA.  A 1023 MB HIGH HAS MOVED OFF THE
COAST OF TEXAS WITH STRONG RIDGING NOW DOMINATING THE ENTIRE
AREA.  STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE E HALF
OF THE GULF WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO VEER OVER THE W GULF. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE HAS BROUGHT RAPID
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ONLY BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS S OF 24N REMAINING.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MIGRATE QUICKLY EWD CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE MONDAY.
RESULTING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE E-SE RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NW PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM
W CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS.  A SMALL CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER S OF 14N DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.  ELSEWHERE...OVERCAST
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NW OF A LINE FROM THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO 23N80W INCLUDING
GUATEMALA...BELIZE...W CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF S MEXICO.  STRONG
NLY FLOW IS NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TYPICAL TRADEWINDS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE EWD TONIGHT BECOMING STATIONARY FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER ON SUNDAY.  WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH OVERCAST SKIES REMAINING
WITHIN 200-300 NM NW OF FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE W ATLANTIC WATERS
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 31N71W SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TO W CUBA NEAR 23N80W. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF FRONT. POST-FRONTAL NLY FLOW TO 25 KT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT.  FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EWD
EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE TURKS/CAICOS BY SUN AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT.  OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC...WELL-DEFINED DEEP-LAYERED LOW NEAR 35N45W
CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE AREA WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 32N33W 27N38W THEN WEAKENING TO 21N50W.
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 26N. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/LIFT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER
LOW APPROACHES.  EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM 34N30W
TO 23N40W BY THIS AFTERNOON.  OVER THE E ATLANTIC...LARGE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY S
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING
DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE FEATURES OR CONVECTION.  S OF THE RIDGE AXIS....THE ITCZ
REMAINS ACTIVE DUE IN PART TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

$$
RHOME


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