[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EST MON 04 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 2N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE
AXIS E OF 15W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 16W
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ENTIRE GULF IS NOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE SURFACE RIDGING WITH
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OFF THE N GULF COAST NEAR 28N87W. WEAKENING
POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE E HALF OF THE GULF
WITH VEERING WINDS OVER THE W GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL MEXICO
NNE ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A STRONG
DEEP-LAYERED LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE ALONG THE NE COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. RESULTING FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS
CONFLUENT CREATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS.
IN FACT...THE ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE IS A FIELD OF COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS N OF 22N W OF 93W. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE E CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO OVER E
HONDURAS. AREA OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINS S OF 19N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPSTREAM DRY UPPER AIR IS RESULTING IN RAPID
CLEARING OVER THE AREA EXCEPT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TYPICAL
TRADEWINDS DOMINATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW
LEVEL POOLING OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W S ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF FRONT N OF 24N. STRONG POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION DOMINATE ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT WITH COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS N OF 25N E OF 76W. FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
E EXTENDING FROM 32N59W TO MONA PASSAGE BY MON NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TODAY
WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC...WELL-DEFINED DEEP-LAYERED LOW NEAR 33N39W
CONTINUES TO MOVE SE WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
ALONG 32N33W 29N35W THEN DISSIPATING ALONG 25N42W TO 24N50W.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N32W SW ALONG 25N37W TO
20N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/LIFT HAVE INCREASED AS
THE UPPER LOW SKIRTS THE N PORTION OF THE AREA. A REINFORCING
SURGE IS DEVELOPING W OF THE FRONT. OVER THE E ATLC...LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY S OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 10N23W WITH UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N
BEYOND 32N18W. RESULTING PATTERN IS PRODUCING DRY/TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES OR CONVECTION. S
OF THE RIDGE AXIS....THE ITCZ REMAINS ACTIVE DUE IN PART TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

$$
WALLACE





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