[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI 01 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N20W 3N40W 1N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM
4N-10N BETWEEN 1W-10W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 35W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S MISSISSIPPI TO THE THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N89W 26N90W 18N95W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  GALE FORCE N WINDS ARE OVER THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT.  A SQUALL LINE IS OVER N
FLORIDA AND S GEORGIA ALONG 33N81W 28N86W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE MOVING E.   A 1004
MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER N GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS N OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE S GULF TO
25N88W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS OVER W TENNESSEE NEAR 36N90W MOVING E.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
S TO S MEXICO NEAR 20N100W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE REST OF THE GULF AND BE OVER S FLORIDA AND W CUBA IN
24 HOURS.  A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER S TEXAS PRODUCING
N WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BRISK TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  MAJOR CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  SEE ABOVE.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE REMNANTS
OF AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N79W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N TO THE
W ATLANTIC BEYOND 32N75W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO
N HONDURAS IN 24 HOURS.  A GOOD DOUSING OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR
CUBA W OF 80W..IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE NLY UPSLOPE-
FAVORED AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA N OF NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N70W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N42W 25N50W 22N60W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN
39W-42W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS IS BEHIND
THE FRONT N OF 25N E OF 70W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR
27N33W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN
COVERS THE AREA FROM W TO E.  QUIET WEATHER IS W OF 70W BENEATH
MID/UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA NNE TO 32N75W WITH
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 18N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT IN BENEATH THIS FEATURE.  MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTROLS
THE E ATLC E OF 40W N OF 20N WITH ZONAL FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS
N OF 10N.

$$
FORMOSA


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