[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011709
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI 01 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N12W 3N27W 3N43W 1N50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N W OF 42W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 4N10W 1N20W.  CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 4N23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
PATTERN LOOKS LIKE A HIGHLIGHT OF LAST WEEKEND'S STORM SHIFTED
AHEAD ONE DAY WITH A MID/UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS FUELING TSTMS
THROUGHOUT THE SE USA.  SYSTEM IS NOT AS POWERFUL AS LAST WEEK'S
WHICH MAY BE THE REASON THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THE LOW HAS BEEN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER RATHER THAN MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIES OVER SE
LOUISIANA NEAR BATON ROUGE SOUTHWARD TO 24N94W INTO MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO.  GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE
SE GULF WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS.  OTHERWISE...A FEW TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 26N89W
NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SCATTERED TSTMS AND NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 85W-89W.  COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THRU THE REST OF THE GULF LATE SAT WITH SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY N OF 26N.  PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER IS
FORECAST FOR ENTIRE AREA ON SUN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON THE
HORIZON EARLY WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER HIGH NEAR 15N82W DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE E
CARIBBEAN HAS A MID/UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 15N60W
WSW TO 14N70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES BENEATH THE TROUGH WITH
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT THOUGH THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
NEAR PUERTO RICO.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXIST IN THE W CARIBBEAN S
OF 18N A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.  A COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ABOUT
MIDDAY SAT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITH RAIN
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS.  STILL A GOOD DOUSING OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR
CUBA W OF 80W..IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE NLY UPSLOPE-
FAVORED AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA N OF NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE AREA FROM W TO E.  QUIET
WEATHER IS W OF 70W BENEATH MID/UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CUBA NNE TO 32N72W WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS DAMPENING
THE SUNSHINE.  THE SLOW-MOVING STORM FROM LAST WEEKEND IS STILL
SPINNING OVER THE ATLC WELL N OF THE AREA BUT IT HAS BECOME
INFUSED WITH ENERGY AND RE-STRENGTHENED NEAR 40N50W.  THIS LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ENTER THE REGION AROUND 31N48W WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 40W-65W.  SHORTWAVE ZIPPING AROUND THE LOW
NEAR 32N48W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 28N
WITHIN 60 NM OF A FRONT FROM 31N46W 24N53W DISSIPATING TO
22N63W.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS ARE BEHIND
THE FRONT N OF 25N E OF 70W.  FARTHER E...THE AZORES HIGH SEEMS
TO HAVE CHANGED INTO THE AZORES LOW DURING THE PAST MONTH OR SO
WITH VERY STORMY CONDITIONS DISPLACED SOUTHWARD FROM TYPICAL..
LEADING TO A WIMPY 1018 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES RIDGING SSW TO A
1020 MB CENTER NEAR 25N37W OVER THE E ATLC.  MID/UPPER RIDGING
CONTROLS THE E ATLC E OF 40W N OF 20N WITH ZONAL FLOW IN THE
DEEP TROPICS N OF 10N.  ITCZ CONVECTION IS A LITTLE ENHANCED
TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM 5N25W TO 6N57W SUPPORTING SOME
TSTMS.

$$
BLAKE

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