[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011208
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU 31 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 6N10W 3N20W 3N30W 4N40W 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N13W 5N30W 5N43W...AND FROM 1N TO 6N
BETWEEN 40W AND 57W....REACHING SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF WATERS. THE BROAD RIDGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS
SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND IS NOW ALONG 73W/74W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 36N95W
IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...DIGGING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN EAST CENTRAL 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 27N100W TO NORTHERN
MEXICO NEAR 26N104W AND CURVING TO 29N108W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND ANOTHER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N93W TO 28N93W TO 25N95W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. GULF COASTAL
STATES FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE IN THE WATERS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH
RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N55W TO 20N60W TO JUST EAST
OF PUERTO RICO TO 16N70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 16N71W 19N66W 20N61W 22N55W...WITH THE CLOUDINESS DISSIPATING
AND RE-DEVELOPING A BIT DURING THE MIDNIGHT HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT...THROUGH 32N43W TO 29N46W.
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 29N46W 26N50W 23N60W 23N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
30 TO 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N46W 32N42W. OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NORTH OF 24N TO 33N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...MOVING AWAY FROM LAND.
THESE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE RELATED TO THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STILL IS INLAND. THE BROAD MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND
NOW IS ALONG 73W/74W. DEEP LAYER TROUGH THROUGH 32N51W TO 21N51W
SUPPORTS THE 32N43W 23N62W SURFACE COLD FRONT. BROAD DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 30W IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS A TROUGH FROM 34N19W TO
27N22W.

$$
MT



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