[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU 31 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 6N10W 3N20W 3N30W 4N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 12W AND 16W...
AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 18W AND 19W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS FROM 1S TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W...REACHING PART OF BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF WATERS. THE BROAD RIDGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS
SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND IS NOW ALONG 75W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 35N99W IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TO WEST TEXAS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM AN EAST CENTRAL 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO
THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 28N100W TO NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR
27N104W AND CURVING TO 30N108W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 24N98W. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE TEXAS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 14N71W TO SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO TO
19N62W...POSSIBLY BEING THE SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N45W 20N58W COLD FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N57W 19N62W 17N68W SINCE
01/0100 UTC...WITH THE CLOUDINESS DISSIPATING DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT...THROUGH 32N45W TO 30N46W.
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 30N46W 27N50W 23N55W 20N58W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N
TO 35N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 43W AND 73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 29N81W 31N79W BEYOND 32N79W...EAST OF A DIFFERENT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL INLAND. THE BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND NOW IS ALONG 75W.
DEEP LAYER TROUGH THROUGH 32N52W TO 21N51W SUPPORTS THE 32N45W
20N58W SURFACE COLD FRONT. EASTERN ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER TROUGH
RUNS FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 41N16W TO 33N18W
JUST WEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...TO 27N24W. A COLD FRONT IS
INLAND FROM NORTHERN MOROCCO NEAR 34N7W TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF
MOROCCO NEAR 26N12W. A TROUGH...THE REMNANT OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS... GOES FROM 35N21W TO 30N22W TO 26N26W. HIGH CLOUDS
WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N36W 25N30W 27N20W
30N12W BEYOND 32N10W. LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY...
IN RELATION TO THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH THE
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N38W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH
OF 10N BETWEEN THE 35N21W 26N26W REMNANT TROUGH AND
THE 32N45W 20N58W COLD FRONT.

$$
MT


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