[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI 01 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N1W 2N30W INTO N PORTIONS OF S
AMERICA NEAR FRENCH GUIANA.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 5W-25W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 5N BETWEEN 35W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SWD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE NW GLFMEX.
ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE EXTENDING SWD TO W PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...N GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE.  ADDITIONALLY...A
NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 90 NM
AHEAD OF FRONT FROM 25N TO N FLORIDA.  THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
QUICKLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF AND FLORIDA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW CLEARING THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON.  STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING SWD BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING GALE
FORCE NLY FLOW OVER THE SW GLFMEX.  ASSOCIATED MIGRATORY HIGH
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF SUN NIGHT THEN MOVE EWD
ACROSS N FLORIDA MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE
AREA ALONG 16N/17N UNDERCUT BY A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC OVER N PORTIONS OF S AMERICA FROM TRINIDAD/TOBAGO
TO 9N70W.  THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A
DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SAVE THE FAR
W PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...N GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE.  WHILE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INDICATING THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS
WEAKENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND FAR W CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT AS THIS AREA
CONTINUES EWD.  ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN SAT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
BE STRONGEST.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED
AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY LATE MON INTO TUE FROM W
HISPANIOLA TO N HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AMPLIFIED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN
PREVAILS OVER THE ATLC WITH RIDGE W OF 60W...BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W-60W...AND SHARP RIDGE OVER THE E
ATLC FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NWD OVER THE AZORES.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE E
UNITED STATES HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC WATERS CURRENTLY WITHIN
120 NM OF THE COAST FROM FLORIDA NWD.  ACTUAL FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS THEN SWEEP QUICKLY EWD
EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE TURKS/CAICOS SUN AFTERNOON.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS AND
POSSIBLY STRONG ALONG THE FRONT SAT THEN WEAKEN SAT NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NWD.  FRONT LOSES ALMOST ALL UPPER SUPPORT BY
LATE SUN WITH ONLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY...MAINLY SHALLOW BASED
SHOWERS.  OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA ALONG 32N40W SWD TO 21N52W.  ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF FRONT.  SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE ALONG FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS
A LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NEAR 38N49W DROPS SEWD. MID/UPPER
RIDGING CONTROLS THE E ATLC E OF 40W N OF 20N WITH ZONAL FLOW IN
THE DEEP TROPICS N OF 10N. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING
DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES OR
CONVECTION.  ITCZ ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS.

$$
RHOME



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