[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU 30 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N1W 7N10W 3N30W 4N40W 4N80W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 5W-24W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
26W-29W...AND FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 81W-83W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND WESTERN ATLANTIC...
1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N68W.
10-20 KT EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 20N ADVECTING
WARMER TEMPERATURES.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
DOTS THE AREA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N100W TO BEYOND LOUISIANA NEAR 32N92W.  A
PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS W OF THE RIDGE AXIS ADVECTING NE
OVER N MEXICO AND TEXAS.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A TROUGH AXIS IS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 32N74W 22N80W
15N87W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W ATLANTIC.  LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS A SLOW MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING OF THE WINDS OCCURS. NO FRONTS ARE ON
THE HORIZON THOUGH A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN GULF BY THE WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA FROM HAITI TO
NICARAGUA ALONG 18N74W 16N80W 12N84W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 81W-83W
MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO DOTS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORMING ALONG THE COAST
OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER HONDURAS.  AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 7N70W.
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE FROM THE CIRCULATION TO BEYOND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N60W.   STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1014 MB LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N53W.  A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND 32N42W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM
27N-32N BETWEEN 39W-43W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM
THE LOW TO 10N55W.  AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
APPROACHING TRINIDAD AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 8N-13N
BETWEEN 50W-60W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N30W.  A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S TO 10N40W.  A RIDGE REMAINS OVER W AFRICA
AND THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N E OF 30W
WITH THE AXIS ALONG 8N.

$$
FORMOSA



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