[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU 30 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N10W 5N20W 4N30W 5N40W 7N50W 7N60W. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 4W AND 6W...
FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 13W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N EAST OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF
THE 32N43W 27N50W 21N60W 19N65W STATIONARY FRONT...
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS REACHING AT LEAST 20 KT COVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. EASTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 KT ARE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO NORTH OF 25N. THE ATLANTIC WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE 35N54W TO 32N66W TO AN 1031 MB SOUTH CAROLINA
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N81W TO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
31N88W TO THE WATERS JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR
29N94W TO EASTERN COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 23N99W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED AS A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING OF
THE WINDS OCCURS. NO FRONTS ARE ON THE HORIZON THOUGH A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN GULF
BY THE WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 20N62W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO SOUTHERN HAITI NEAR 18N74W. TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 18N74W TO 16N80W...TO 11N84W OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 74W AND 86W. CLUSTERS
OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ARE
MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. THE INCREASED
RAIN ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE AREA
OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY AND
SHIFT WESTWARD... BRINGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ELSEWHERE. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N84W 21N76W
24N64W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE AREA...EVEN AROUND THE COZUMEL CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 32N43W TO 27N50W TO 21N60W TO
19N65W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FOUND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS FRONT...FROM 28N46W TO 24N50W
TO AN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 20N52W...CONTINUING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 13N60W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. OTHER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 28N TO 33N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM 28N47W BEYOND 32N44W. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS SWIRL AROUND THE 1013 MB LOW
CENTER FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W. BROAD AND WEAK
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND
70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE TROPICS GOES FROM A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N32W TO 16N40W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 10N
TO 25N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
NORTH OF 27N EAST OF 33W COVERING SPAIN...PORTUGAL...AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MOROCCO.

$$
MT


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