[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300617 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU 30 DEC 2004

CORRECTION FOR THE DATE AND TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N11W 4N20W 4N30W 5N40W 7N45W 8N50W 8N60W. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 4W
AND 6W...FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 9W AND 11W...FROM 3N TO 5N
BETWEEN 21W AND 26W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 26W AND 29W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N EAST OF 30W...AND FROM 7N
TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF
THE 32N43W 27N50W 21N60W 19N66W STATIONARY FRONT...
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS REACHING AT LEAST 20 KT COVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. EASTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 KT ARE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO NORTH OF 25N. THE ATLANTIC WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE FROM AN 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
32N66W TO A WESTERN GEORGIA 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
32N85W TO 32N89W TO 29N94W ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...TO
22N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF...TO THE MEXICO EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN COAST NEAR 16N97W JUST WEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW
IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS A SLOW MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING OF THE WINDS OCCURS. NO FRONTS ARE
ON THE HORIZON THOUGH A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN GULF BY THE WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 20N63W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO SOUTHERN HAITI TO 15N80W...TO 11N83W
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 78W AND
86W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS STILL FROM JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA.
CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...
ARE MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. THE
INCREASED RAIN ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR COZUMEL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY AND SHIFT WESTWARD... BRINGING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ELSEWHERE.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 TO 200 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 15N85W 19N79W 22N74W 23N67W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AREA...EVEN AROUND THE COZUMEL
CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 32N43W TO 27N50W TO 21N60W TO
19N66W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FOUND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS FRONT...FROM 28N46W TO 25N50W
TO AN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21N52W...CONTINUING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 14N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 38W AND
45W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM 28N48W BEYOND 32N46W.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS SWIRL AROUND THE
1013 MB LOW CENTER FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W. BROAD
AND WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN
40W AND 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE TROPICS GOES
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N32W TO 16N40W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM
10N TO 26N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE LINE FROM 26N AT THE MOROCCO
COAST TO 30N31W 34N33W.

$$
MT



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