[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU 30 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N25W 6N37W 6N55W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF 6.5N36.5W AND 1N12W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 15W-18W.  DISSIPATING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 18W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF 60W...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS STRONG ELY SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE E GULF S OF 28N.  A 1030 MB
HIGH A FEW HUNDRED MILES SW OF BERMUDA IS ENHANCING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE REGION WITH RIDGING ORIENTED FROM E-W FROM
32N62W TO SE TEXAS.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN A
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE
W ATLC ESPECIALLY CONCENTRATED BETWEEN 24N-27N E OF FLORIDA.
WIND ARE SLY IN THE W GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OFF SE TEXAS/
MEXICO W OF 93.5W N OF 23N.  UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE GULF WITH
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND NEARLY OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUDS N OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.  WEAK
TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE W ATLC...BRINGING A BENIGN
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE N PART OF THE REGION FROM 31N79W TO
32N72W WITH ONLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS/ A FEW SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM
OF THE BOUNDARY.  LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GULF WEATHER PATTERN IS
LIKELY AS A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING OF THE
WINDS OCCURS.  NO FRONTS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK OR THE
WEEKEND THOUGH INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE W
GULF AS DEEPER MOISTURE ENTERS LOUISIANA/S TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
REMNANT TROUGH FROM AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS TO JUST OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA.  WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE FORMING NEAR THE TROUGH WITH
CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 85W.  RAIN ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN ENHANCED DUE TO LIFT/DIVERGENCE NEAR AND N OF THE
MID/UPPER LOW THAT IS DIVING S THRU CENTRAL AMERICA NOW NEAR NE
NICARAGUA.  OTHERWISE...RATHER DRY CONDITIONS AND SW FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS IN THE E CARIBBEAN SAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A CLUSTER
OF MORE CONCENTRATED RAIN WITHIN 75 NM OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-74W.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER UPSLOPE AREAS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/BROKEN SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREA OF HONDURAS/GUATEMALA.  MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD SPREAD WESTWARD... MOVING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SOUTHWARD THRU BELIZE TO HONDURAS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE CENTRAL ATLC LIES NEAR A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N42W SW INTO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 20N53W
WITH A WEAK TROUGH SSW TO 10N55W.  UPPER SHORTWAVE ALONG 24N41W
32N44W IS CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45
NM OF LINE 29N43W 32N40W WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT ELSEWHERE.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 52W-58W WITH SFC TROUGH.  BROAD UPPER RIDGING BASICALLY
COVERS THE AREA W AND S OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH VERY DRY AIR NOTED
AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS.  IN THE E ATLC... A HIGH-OVER-LOW
PATTERN IS IN PLACE WITH THE UPPER HIGH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND
PORTUGAL WITH THE LOW NEAR 25N26W ABOUT 450 NM WSW OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS.  ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 7N35W
WITH UPPER RIDGING AND INCREASING UPPER MOISTURE FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION COVERING THE DEEP TROPICS E OF THE CAPE VERDES.  THE
HIGH-OVER-LOW PATTERN IS A STAGNANT ONE WITH FEW CHANGES
EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT WEEK.  BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT
N OF 17N E OF 35W ASSOCIATED WITH 20 KT TRADES AND TYPICAL
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE.

$$
BLAKE

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