[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE 28 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N10W 3N20W 5N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH REACHES
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE ITCZ...WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 13N36W 9N40W 6N39W 4N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS COVER THE GULF WITH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
INCREASING OVER SOUTH TEXAS. COOLER CONTINENTAL AIR IS BEING
MODIFIED BY THE WARMER GULF WATERS WITH BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO 28N89W TO
JUST NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE WITH NO FRONTS SCHEDULED TO ENTER THE REGION THIS
WEEK AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
SLOW WARMING SHOULD OCCUR WITH GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY LATE WEEK.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE AREA IS AWASH IN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MORE ZONAL
FLOW IS NORTH OF THE RIDGING NORTH OF 25N. SURFACE COLD FRONT
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 20N72W TO HAITI TO 17N75W.
STATIONARY FRONT 17N75W 13N80W TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA NEAR 9.5N83W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN A CLOUD MASS FROM 14N
TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 75W. COLD AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT RUNS THROUGH 32N60W
TO 25N66W TO 20N72W. THESE COLD-AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS AS THE COLD AIR SLOWLY MODIFIES IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA... SIGNALLING THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE
COOL WEATHER IN THE STATE.  IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WET WEATHER
WILL CONCENTRATE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT FORECAST TO DRIFT
WESTWARD AND BE NEAR JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA.

CENTRAL/E ATLANTIC...
1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N49W IS MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD AS PART OF A WAVY TROUGH FROM 31N50W TO THE CYCLONIC
CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 35N AND 47W. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...LIFT/DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 12N40W 20N40W
29N47W. THE MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 23N48W DOMINATES THE REGION WITH
DRY AIR IN THE TROPICS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  UPPER RIDGING
CONTROLS THE REST OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH A RIDGE
ALONG ABOUT 30W WITH CIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUDS WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS
DIMINISHING ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THICK LOW/MID CLOUDS CONTINUE
IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF THE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE CLOUDS ARE PART OF A RESPONSE FROM THE ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE... 1037 MB NEAR THE AZORES WITH ELY WINDS NEAR 25 KT IN THE
FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

$$
MT

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