[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE 28 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N90W 4N20W 3N30W 4N40W 3N48W 2N52W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 8W AND 11W...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N
TO 9N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W...STRONG WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF
5N32.5W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN
27W AND 35W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
4N TO 7N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W...AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND
42W. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH FROM 23N47W 17N43W 9N44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS COVER THE GULF WITH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
INCREASING OVER SOUTH TEXAS. COOLER CONTINENTAL AIR IS BEING
MODIFIED BY THE WARMER GULF WATERS WITH BROKEN LOW AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH NO FRONTS SCHEDULED TO ENTER THE
REGION THIS WEEK AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. SLOW WARMING SHOULD OCCUR WITH GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY LATE WEEK.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR IS ALOFT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MORE ZONAL FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGING
NORTH OF 25N. SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN RUNS
THROUGH 32N57W TO 21N70W TO HAITI TO 17N75W. STATIONARY FRONT
17N75W 13N80W TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN A CLOUD MASS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 64W AND
77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 16N79W 14N81W 12N82W 10N83W. COLD AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. THESE COLD-AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS AS THE COLD AIR SLOWLY MODIFIES IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WET WEATHER WILL CONCENTRATE NEAR THE
STATIONARY FRONT FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND BE NEAR JAMAICA
TO NICARAGUA.

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N51W IS MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD AS PART OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 50W/51W FROM 30N TO
THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE FROM
14N TO 24N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 23N47W 17N43W
9N44W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 22N47W.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLS THE REST OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ALONG 30W WITH CIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUDS WEST OF THE RIDGE
DIMINISHING ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THICK LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS ARE PART OF A RESPONSE FROM THE
ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...1038 MB NEAR THE AZORES WITH
EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 30 KT FROM 28N TO 30N EAST OF 32W.

$$
MT


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