[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON 27 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N20W 5N43W 2N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 4N30W 7N44W 10N41W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 2N10W 3N20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ELY WINDS COVER THE GULF WITH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE INCREASING
OVER S TEXAS.  COOLER CONTINENTAL AIR IS BEING MODIFIED BY THE
WARMER GULF WATERS WITH BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS S OF A LINE
FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO 28N89W TO JUST N OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS.  UPPER RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE EXTREME
GULF ENHANCING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL CUBA.  BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH NO FRONTS
SCHEDULED TO ENTER THE REGION THIS WEEK AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  SLOW WARMING SHOULD OCCUR WITH GENERALLY
NE-E WINDS SHIFTING TO E TO SE BY LATE WEEK.

ATLANTIC W OF 60W AND CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE AREA IS AWASH IN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WITH UPPER RIDGING
CENTERED OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MORE ZONAL FLOW IS N OF THE
RIDGING N OF 25N.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS...CLOUDY SKIES ARE
LINGERING BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM 32N61W TO NW HAITI THEN
STATIONARY TO 15N78W TO SE NICARAGUA.   WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A COUPLE TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND OVERCAST LOW/MID
CLOUDS IN THE W ATLC.  THESE COLD-AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS AS THE COLD AIR SLOWLY MODIFIES OVER THE
W ATLC.  A FEW SHOWERS ARE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO S FLORIDA...
SIGNALLING THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE COOL WEATHER IN THE
STATE.  IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WET WEATHER WILL CONCENTRATE NEAR
THE STATIONARY FRONT FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND BE NEAR
JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA.

CENTRAL/E ATLANTIC...
1008 MB LOW NEAR 22N49W IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AS PART OF A
WAVY TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N5217N49W 28N49W 32N47W.  THERE IS SOME
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER MOSTLY
IN THE E SEMICIRCLE AND THE LOW REMAINS EXTRATROPICAL WITH A
STRONG MID/UPPER LOW OVERHEAD TROUGHING S TO 9N50W.  SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...LIFT/DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 12N40W 20N40W
29N47W. THE MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 22N48W DOMINATES THE REGION WITH
DRY AIR IN THE TROPICS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  UPPER RIDGING
CONTROLS THE REST OF THE E ATLC WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG ABOUT 30W
WITH CIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUDS W OF THE RIDGE AXIS DIMINISHING ON THE
E SIDE.  IN THE E ATLC...THICK LOW/MID CLOUDS CONTINUE IN THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF THE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE CLOUDS
ARE PART OF A RESPONSE FROM THE ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...
1037 MB NEAR THE AZORES WITH ELY WINDS NEAR 25 KT IN THE FAR NE
ATLC.

$$
BLAKE

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