[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN 26 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N13W 4N25W 7N40W 9N50W 6N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A 11N38W 10.5N45W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO/ATLANTIC W OF 75W...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CUTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING THROUGH SE LOUISIANA TO 25N92W TO 19N98W. CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LOCATED 12-15 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A VORTICITY CENTER
IS LOCATED ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST MOVING NE ABOUT 20 KT. A JET
ORIGINATES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 17N98W NE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BEYOND 32N76W. 300 MB
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG THE JET ARE IN THE 70 TO 80 KT
RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A 1003 MB LOW IS LOCATED AT 30.5N79W...
MOVING NE 40 KT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
25N80W INTO EASTERN HONDURAS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE FRONT IS CLEARLY DEFINED ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SNOW ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS
COAST EXTENDING INLAND ABOUT 60 NM.

CARIBBEAN SEA...ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W AND 75W...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND THE
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W AND 75W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
NICARAGUA TO 22N75W TO BEYOND 32N66W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN E OF THE COLD FRONT. ONLY AREAS OF CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS ARE OFF THE HAITI COAST AND IN THE AREA BETWEEN JAMAICA
SW TO NICARAGUA.

REMAINDER ATLANTIC...
ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 25N48W...DRIFTING N. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE CIRCULATION TO NEAR 9N58W. AT THE SURFACE A 1014 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 22N47W...MOVING N ABOUT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO 31N46W AND S FROM THE LOW TO 16N52W.
LARGE AREA OF LAYERED CLOUDS IS LOCATED FROM 15N TO 31N BETWEEN
35W AND 49W. WITHIN THIS AREA TSTM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN 75
NM EITHER SIDE OF A 28N42W 24N42W LINE. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM A
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT IS LOCATED ALONG 37W FROM NEAR 15N TO BEYOND
32N. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED 10 DEGREES E OF THE RIDGE AXIS
AND 5 DEGREES W OF THE AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS S FROM A
1041 MB HIGH NEAR 43N26W THROUGH 32N25W TO 20N24W.

$$
CAB

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