[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN 26 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 5N30W 4N50W 8N70W 8N80W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 13W-15W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-10N BETWEEN 32W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND GULF OF MEXICO N OF 20N W OF 82W.  AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W...MOVING
EAST 15-20 KT.  A STRONG...FAIRLY NARROW...SOUTHWESTERLY JET
STREAM IS LOCATED FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITH WINDS FROM 90-130 KT.  AT 0900 UTC A 1001 MB GALE LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W.  WINDS OF 30-45 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE BEING REPORTED NEAR THE LOW CENTER.  A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO W CUBA AND HONDURAS ALONG
23N82W 16N85W.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO THE W
ATLANTIC CENTRAL NEAR 32N76W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
HOWEVER...OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 77W-79W.
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXTEND 500 NM BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS...HOWEVER... ARE VOID OF LOW CLOUDS N OF 26N AND W OF
90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W... A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N COSTA RICA TO E CUBA TO BEYOND
32N60W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 600 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGES INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS...HOWEVER...OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 27N AND W OF 57W.  A NARROW ROPE CLOUD DELINEATES
THE COLD FRONT TO HONDURAS WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUD BEHIND THE
FRONT.  SCATTERED TRADEWIND SHOWERS DOTS PORTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 70W...OVER JAMAICA AND HAITI...AND OVER E
NICARAGUA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
34N45W TO 20N49W TO VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W.  ONE EMBEDDED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N49W...MOVING E.
DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-30N BETWEEN
35W-45W. ON THE SURFACE...A 1014 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
34N45W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO 25N43W 12N54W.  A
WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32W FROM 5N TO BEYOND 32N.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
WITHIN 600 NM  EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  A LONGWAVE TROUGH
IS OVER NW AFRICA AND SPAIN N OF 20N AND E OF 20W.

$$
FORMOSA



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