[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN 26 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N30W 3N50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
11W-13W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
8W-11W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 27W-35W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA/THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N97W...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 KT...TO CENTRAL MEXICO
NEAR 22N102W. A STRONG...FAIRLY NARROW...SOUTHWESTERLY JET
STREAM IS LOCATED FROM SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. WINDS ARE FROM 90
KT TO 130 KT IN THE JET STREAM.  AT 0300 UTC A 998 MB GALE LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N85W.  WINDS OF 30-45 KNOTS
ARE BEING REPORTED NEAR THE LOW CENTER.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S
FROM THE LOW TO W CUBA AND HONDURAS ALONG 23N83W 16N87W.  A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 27N82W
29N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LINGERS OVER S FLORIDA
WITHIN 20 NM OF THE LINE 24N82W 26N79W MOVING E.  OVERCAST COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXTENDS 500 NM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS...HOWEVER... ARE VOID OF LOW
CLOUDS N OF 26N AND W OF 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND 75W...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO E CUBA TO
BEYOND 32N60W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 600 NM OF THE RIDGE
AXIS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS HOWEVER OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 27N AND W OF 57W.  NARROW ROPE CLOUD DELINEATES
THE COLD FRONT TO HONDURAS WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUD BEHIND THE
FRONT.  SCATTERED TRADEWIND SHOWERS DOTS PORTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 70W...OVER JAMAICA AND HAITI...AND OVER E
NICARAGUA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
34N45W TO 20N49W TO VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W.  ONE EMBEDDED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N49W...MOVING E.
DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-29N BETWEEN 35W-45W.
ON THE SURFACE...A 1014 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N44W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO 20N45W.  A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC ALONG 32W
FROM 5N TO BEYOND 32N.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 600 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

$$
FORMOSA


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