[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT 25 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N12W 4N24W...THE EQUATOR AT 40W...3S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO
6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA/THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N92W...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 KT...TO CENTRAL MEXICO
NEAR 22N102W. A STRONG...FAIRLY NARROW...SOUTHWESTERLY JET
STREAM IS LOCATED FROM SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 25/1800 UTC SHOW WINDS FROM 90 KT TO
130 KT IN THE JET STREAM. THE FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES DIFFLUENT
IN THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER FLORIDA INCLUDING IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS AIDING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN 45 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE FROM 24N82W IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO 27N81W JUST
NORTHEAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...CONTINUING BEYOND 32N79W IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT GOES THROUGH 32N73W
TO 27N78W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N78W TO AN 1004 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N88W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA COAST...TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA...TO MEXICO NEAR 15N93W
JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. OVERCAST STRATIFORM
CLOUDS ARE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR AN AREA FROM 60 TO 100 NM
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 29N92W AND 22N98W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND 75W...
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
NICARAGUA ACROSS EASTERN CUBA BEYOND 32N70W. WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A VERY
NARROW...PRE-FRONTAL ROPE CLOUD FEATURE...FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO THE SHORES OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N50W TO 22N55W TO 10N63W. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 30N51W...DRIFTING SOUTHWEST...AND A SECOND ONE IS NEAR
20N50W MOVING SOUTH ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 27N
BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. A NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N50W
18N52W 14N54W. AN 1014 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
31N44W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERNMORE CIRCULATION. A SURFACE
TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 27N43W AND 22N45W. SHOWERS
WITH THIS 31N44W LOW CENTER ARE NORTH OF 32N. A WELL-DEFINED
RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC ALONG 32W
FROM 5N TO 30N. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 10 DEGREES ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

$$

MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net