[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262309
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN 26 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N13W 5N25W 7N40W 9N50W 6N59W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 33W-47W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN
45 NM OF LINE 5N20W 4.5N30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NOW THAT THE CHRISTMAS SNOWSTORM OF 2004 IS OVER FOR THE AREA...
WITH SOME AREAS IN TEXAS SEEING 13 INCHES OF SNOW (THAT'S NOT A
TYPO!) AND NEW ORLEANS SEEING ITS FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY IN RECORDED HISTORY... THE WEATHER IS BECOMING
MUCH MORE QUIET WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM W-E ACROSS THE
GULF COAST.  AMAZINGLY... THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND
WITHIN 60 NM OF 29N97W NEAR VICTORIA TEXAS BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY
MELT TOMORROW AS UPPER RIDGING ADVANCES INTO THE W GULF AND
WARMER ELY WINDS BEGIN OFF THE GULF.  COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS ARE
SCATTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 26N BUT SHOULD BE
DECREASING AS A 1028 MB HIGH OVER SW LOUISIANA SHIFTS EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.. ENDING MOST OF THE COLD-AIR ADVECTION.  THE REST OF
THE WEEK SHOULD BE FILLED WITH ELY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WITH
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

ATLANTIC W OF 60W AND CARIBBEAN SEA...
IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM OFFSHORE OF N CAROLINA WITH UPPER
TROUGHING INTO THE AREA ALONG 73W.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THRU 31N74W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN SE CUBA THRU THE
CARIBBEAN SEA JUST NW OF JAMAICA INTO NE NICARAGUA.  BROKEN
LOW/MID CLOUDINESS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT WITH CLOSER TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC WITH SIMILAR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  MOIST NLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVEL IS CAUSING A CLOUDY
DAY IN HONDURAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE... BROAD
UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA WITH EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS S OF 15N E OF 80E.   WET WEATHER WILL PROBABLY
BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECTED TO STALL
FROM NEAR JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA TOMORROW.

CENTRAL/E ATLANTIC...
ANOTHER PESKY LOW HAS FORMED TODAY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AROUND
23N46W ALONG A SINUOUS TROUGH AXIS FROM 14N47W 19N45W 26N47W
31N46W.  THE LOW IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SHALLOW CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER BUT REMAINS EXTRATROPICAL WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW
NEARLY OVERHEAD TROUGHING TO 8N51W.  LIFT/DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE LOW ENHANCES WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
23N-29N BETWEEN 38W-48W.  THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ AND THE
UPPER TROUGH IS ASSISTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
BETWEEN 9N-13N BETWEEN 38W-46W.  THE MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 22N48W
DOMINATES THE REGION WITH DRY AIR IN THE TROPICS W OF 50W.
UPPER RIDGING IS ALONG 30W WITH CIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUDS W OF THE
RIDGE AXIS DIMINISHING ON THE DOWNWIND SUBSIDENCE-LACED SIDE.
IN THE E ATLC...BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS ARE IN THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF THE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE CLOUDS
ARE BEING FORCED INTO THE AREA FROM A REJUVENATED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE... 1038 MB NEAR THE AZORES.  RIDGING CONTROLS THE AREA
WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 31N55W SW TO
24N70W.

$$
BLAKE

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net