[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED 08 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N10W 5N25W 9N50W 8N60W 8N80W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
15W-19W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 28W-37W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 43W-53W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 78W-82W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER E MICHIGAN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THRU THE SE USA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
MOBILE.  EARLIER SEVERE WEATHER HAS QUIETED WITH MOST OF THE
UPPER ENERGY LIFTING N OF THE REGION.  FRONT CONTINUES FROM NEAR
MOBILE SW TO 25N95W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 22N98W BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY OVER INLAND MOUNTAINS.  ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND WAIT FOR A LARGER PUSH OF COLD WEATHER
DUE TO REACH THE GULF THU.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER YUCATAN CONTINUES TO PREVENT MOST FRONTS FROM MAKING DEEP
SOUTHERN PROGRESS.

CARIBBEAN...
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
NEAR 20N84W.  VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA EXCEPT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND
COSTA RICA.  TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF
12N ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

ATLANTIC...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER TROUGHS AND RIDGES ARE RATHER DEEP...
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS LIMITED AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE N OF THE
AREA WITH NO ENERGETIC FEATURES.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN THE
W ATLC W OF 70W.  A DEEP TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N46W TO THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. A SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED JUST TO THE E
OF THE MAIN TROF AXIS ALONG 32N42W 28N45W AND IS TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 29N BETWEEN
35W-41W. TWO SFC TROUGHS ARE LOCATED BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG 20N60W 27N55W AND ALONG 17N46W 24N45W 30N40W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXES.  FARTHER
E... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LIES MOSTLY STATIONARY ALONG A LINE
FROM 12N45W TO THE AZORES.  DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER NW
AFRICA WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.  IN THE TROPICS...A
NOTICEABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS CENTERED OVER THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 27W-42W..PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  UPPER
LEVEL CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE ITCZ TSTMS EXTENDS INTO W/CNTRL
AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA


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