[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED 08 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N10W 5N20W 9N50W 7N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 11W-14W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 14W-17W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 42W-47W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
PANAMA AND NW COLOMBIA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 76W-82W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W TO
28N90W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO MEXICO ALONG 25N95W
20N97W 26N101W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT.  THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND
WAIT FOR A LARGER PUSH OF COLD WEATHER DUE TO REACH THE GULF
THU.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PREVENT MOST FRONTS FROM MAKING
DEEP SOUTHERN PROGRESS.

CARIBBEAN...
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IS
NEAR 20N81W.  VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA EXCEPT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND
COSTA RICA.  TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF
12N ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

ATLANTIC...
THE ATLANTIC HAS A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TROUGH RIDGE
PATTERN...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS LIMITED SINCE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS ARE REMAINING N OF 30N.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
CAYMAN ISLAND ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EXTENDS NE TO THE W ATLC W OF
70W.  A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N45W TO THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MAINLY N OF 29N BETWEEN 35W-41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 27N43W 18N46W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.  FARTHER
E... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LIES MOSTLY STATIONARY ALONG A LINE
FROM 12N45W TO THE AZORES.  DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER NW
AFRICA WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.  IN THE TROPICS...A
NOTICEABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS CENTERED OVER THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 27W-42W..PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  UPPER
LEVEL CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE ITCZ TSTMS EXTENDS INTO W/CNTRL
AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA



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