[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE 07 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N10W 6N19W 7N35W 9N50W 8N60W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 7N42W 11N49W AND 30 NM OF LINE
4N26W 5N30W.  SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N-7.5N BETWEEN 31W-40W.
A FEW TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF 4N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING THRU THE SE USA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR MOBILE.
EARLIER SEVERE WEATHER HAS QUIETED WITH MOST OF THE UPPER ENERGY
LIFTING N OF THE REGION.  FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR MOBILE SW TO
26N95W INTO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY
OVER INLAND MOUNTAINS.  ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITH THE
FRONT.  SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK.. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE
NORTHERN GULF AND WAIT FOR A LARGER PUSH OF COLD WEATHER DUE TO
REACH THE GULF THU.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER
YUCATAN CONTINUES TO PREVENT MOST FRONTS FROM MAKING DEEP
SOUTHERN PROGRESS.  STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THU AS THE
NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE GULF.  THIS COULD BE THE FIRST REAL
"WINTRY" PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE TROPICS FOR THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS ARE DRIVING THE FRONT DEEP INTO THE CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN...
THE CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN GENERALLY COVERED WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT
FOR DAYS ON THE SOUTHERN CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE RIDGING OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC AND TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION.  ONE
AREA THAT HAS SEEN SOME WEATHER HAS BEEN THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN
JUST TO THE E OF TROF/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS THEN WWD TO THE NICARAGUAN COAST.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN S OF THAT LINE BUT IS LIMITED TO S
AMERICA TODAY.  TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE WITH SOME SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS OVER PANAMA W OF THE
CANAL ZONE DUE TO THE EPAC ITCZ.

ATLANTIC...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER TROUGHS/RIDGES ARE RATHER DEEP... SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS LIMITED AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE N OF THE AREA WITH NO
ENERGETIC FEATURES.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN THE W ATLC WITH A
DEEP TROF STRETCHING FROM 32N46W TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. A SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED JUST TO THE E OF THE MAIN TROF
AXIS ALONG 32N42W 28N45W AND IS TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 29N BETWEEN 37W-41W. TWO SFC
TROUGHS ARE LOCATED BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG 20N60W
32N45W AND 19N44W 26N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THOSE TROF AXES. FARTHER E... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LIES
MOSTLY STATIONARY ALONG A LINE FROM 12N45W TO THE AZORES AND A
SHORTWAVE TROF IS LOCATED JUST DOWNSTREAM ALONG 27N22W 17N32W.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER NW AFRICA WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.  IN THE TROPICS...A NOTICEABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS CENTERED OVER THE ITCZ BETWEEN 27W-42W..PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE ITCZ
TSTMS EXTENDS INTO W/CNTRL AFRICA.

$$
BLAKE

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