[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE 07 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N1W 7N10W 5N24W 6.5N34W 6N43W 8N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 225 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 22W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 32W-37W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE ITCZ TO 12N BETWEEN
40W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES FEEDS INTO THE BASE OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHICH IS FUELING A POTENT STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WITH AREAS OF SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
INTO THE GULF...EXTENDING FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS TO A POINT ALONG
THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN TAMPICO AND CIUDAD VICTORIA. THERE IS
ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDING OVER THE
N GULF FROM CNTRL MEXICO TO FLORIDA BUT THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
MUCH DRIER AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
CNTRL CUBA WITH A RIDGE PROTRUDING NEWD INTO THE W ATLC NEAR
32N64W...PREVENTING THE WET WEATHER FROM MOVING MUCH FARTHER S.
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER OVER THE N GULF OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE FRONT STALLS...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THU AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS
COAST.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING AN ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. A TROF/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC WATERS TO
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THEN WWD TO THE NICARAGUAN
COAST...WITH ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE RESTRICTED S OF THIS LINE
OVER S AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT SPLIT OFF THIS TROF HAS
CROSSED CNTRL AMERICA INTO THE PACIFIC BUT A SMALL AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE FEATURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA
BORDER.

ATLANTIC...
A MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE ATLC OCEAN WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING EWD FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES TO THE W ATLC...AND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM
32N49W TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. A SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED
JUST TO THE E OF THE MAIN TROF AXIS ALONG 32N46W 28N45W AND IS
TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 30N BETWEEN
39W-43W. THERE ARE TWO SFC TROFS LOCATED BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF ALONG 20N61W 32N45W AND 18N43W 26N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE FORMED NEAR THESE FEATURES FROM 21N-26N
BETWEEN 50W-58W AND 22N-26N BETWEEN 42W-48W RESPECTIVELY.
FARTHER E...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS MOSTLY STATIONARY ALONG A
LINE FROM 20N35W TO THE AZORES AND A SHORTWAVE TROF IS LOCATED
JUST DOWNSTREAM ALONG 27N22W 18N33W. A MUCH LARGER TROF IS
LOCATED OVER NW AFRICA BUT STRONG SFC RIDGING OVER THE E ATLC IS
KEEPING THE AREA FREE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. IN THE
TROPICS...A NOTICEABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
CENTERED OVER THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N BETWEEN 27W-42W
WHICH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE SAME AREA.
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW THEN EXTENDS INTO W/CNTRL AFRICA ALONG SWLY
FLOW.

$$
BERG




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