[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE 07 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N5W 6N20W 8N40W 9N70W 7N80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 23W-30W
AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 30W-41W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 41W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AFTER BLOCKING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE
LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GLFMEX IS
FINALLY GIVING UP SOME GROUND AS A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
STRONG DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING AN
IMPRESSIVE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TRAILING SW INTO SE LOUISIANA BUT THE LINE RAPIDLY WEAKENS AS IT
EMERGES INTO THE NW GLFMEX.  THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVED OFF
THE SE TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA NEAR
LAKE CHARLES SW TO THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST S OF THE TEXAS
BORDER.  HOWEVER...WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFTING RAPIDLY NEWD...MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS/LIFT ARE
CONFINED N OF THE AREA.  AS A RESULT...ONLY A VERY THIN LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT PRIMARILY N OF 27N.  THIS FRONT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH SWD
PROGRESS AS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN UNFOLDS BY MID-WEEK CAUSING THE
FRONT TO PULL UP STATIONARY ON WED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CENTRAL ATLC TROF STRETCHES INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SWD ALONG THE N COAST OF S AMERICA TO
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR HONDURAS/NICARAGUA.  THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PUSHING EWD ALLOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND EXTREMELY DRY/STABLE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AIR TO ADVANCE EWD OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN.  HOWEVER...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHERE INSTABILITY IS LARGEST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED INTO CENTRAL AMERICA
SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ALONG WINDWARD FACING SLOPES. AT THE SURFACE...
MODERATE TO STRONG ELY TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN OWING
TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC FEATURES AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER W ATLC FROM W CUBA TO THE NE UNITED
STATES...TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-65W...AND A
HIGH OVER LOW REGIME IN THE E ATLC BETWEEN 20W-45W.  THE MAIN
WEATHER TODAY IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALONG 55W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A REMNANT
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N47W SWD ALONG 25N43W TO THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.  THE REMNANT LOW OF OTTO MERGED WITH THE FRONTAL
TROUGH YESTERDAY NEAR 24N/25N AND IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH.  OVER THE E ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOCATED NEAR 20N32W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY/STABLE AIR TO ITS WEST
EXTENDING TO 50W.  E OF THE UPPER LOW...DIFFLUENT FLOW AND A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET FROM 15N35W INTO W AFRICA NEAR
MAURITANIA IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE ITCZ NWD TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
BETWEEN 20W-40W.

$$
RHOME



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