[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI 03 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 6N15W 4N25W 5N35W 3N46W...THEN
INLAND ACROSS N BRAZIL TO CNTRL COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 250 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-28W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 29W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEARLY FLAT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE S SIDE OF A POTENT
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROF IS POSITIONED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
SPREADING ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF. A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM ABOUT MIAMI FLORIDA SWWD TO 23N89W THEN AS
A STATIONARY FRONT TO A 1017 MB LOW ABOUT 60 NM SE OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A SFC TROF EXTENDS S OF THE LOW OFF THE
MEXICAN COAST TO NEAR 19N95W. DEEP CONVECTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT ALTHOUGH THE OUTER RANGES OF U.S. DOPPLER RADAR
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS CURLING INLAND OVER S TEXAS AROUND
THE SFC LOW...AS WELL AS MOVING EWD ABOUT 50-200 NM OFF THE
LOUISIANA COAST.

CARIBBEAN...
DOMINANT BUT ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. THE TAIL END OF A DEEP
ATLC TROF EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM GUADELOUPE TO 14N70W
TO E PANAMA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TROF AND THE DRY AIR EXTENDS WELL N PAST THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND CUBA. SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR FROM INTERIOR SOUTH
AMERICA EXTENDS ACROSS THE VENEZUELAN COAST AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
INTO THE ATLC...BUT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS MEAGER BY MOST
STANDARDS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE DOTTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE BASIN AND THE MOST CONCENTRATED CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS ARE
BANKED UP ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM BELIZE TO
NICARAGUA.

WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA COAST FROM 32N71W
TO MIAMI FLORIDA WITH ONLY A ROPE CLOUD AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL TO ABOUT
60W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO A TROF FROM 32N38W TO GUADELOUPE. THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM OTTO ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROF...SITTING STATIONARY NEAR 26.5N50W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 225 NM TO THE SE. THE GFS SUGGESTS QUICK
DISSIPATION OF THE LOW TO A TROF BY 48 HOURS. ANOTHER SFC TROF
IS LOCATED FARTHER E ALONG 32N37W 25N34W AND IS COLLOCATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N37W...WHICH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 33.5W-36W. FARTHER S IN
THE TROPICS...A WESTWARD-MOVING LOW-LEVEL TROF IS LOCATED N OF
FRENCH GUIANA ALONG 6N53W 14N51W BUT STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS
STRIPPING ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE E FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
42W-50W.

EAST ATLANTIC...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXTENDS FROM THE S/CNTRL ATLC
NEWD TO THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC FORCED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED DEEP IN THE TROPICS NEAR 7N34W. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE TO THE E OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ UNTIL DRIER AIR CHOKES IT E OF 20W
NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH
MULTIPLE INTERNAL CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM SPAIN TO CNTRL
MOROCCO AND THE CANARY ISLANDS AND MET-8 VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS A REINFORCING SFC BOUNDARY IS BUTTING UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN ATLAS MTNS AND NRN CANARY ISLANDS WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE STRAITS OF GIBRALTAR.

$$
BERG


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