[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI 03 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 6N21W 6N34W 9N44W 2N53W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N
BETWEEN 13W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 41W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLANTIC...AND W CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF W CUBA NEAR
20N83W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE INTO THE W ATLC BEYOND
32N67W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS ALL OF THE GULF...THE W ATLC N
OF 20N W OF 65W...AND THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONT EXTENDS S INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N75W THEN
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO 24N86W
WHERE IT CONTINUES W AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N97W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING S ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TO 19N96W. MOST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN THE DRY UPPER AIR THUS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO ONLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS. PACIFIC MOISTURE
IS STREAMING ACROSS N MEXICO AND THE N GULF INTO THE W ATLC.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 90W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE AREA S OF 26N W
OF 70W OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND E CARIBBEAN...
NARROW TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
32N37W SW THROUGH A WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
26N50W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OTTO...CONTINUING SW
INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W TO OVER
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY
AIR ARE NW OF A LINE FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N69W THROUGH
THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 24N42W. AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN
THIS TROUGH AND THE RIDGE OF THE W CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING A LINE
OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM S
OF HAITI TO OVER NICARAGUA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1002 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 27N50W...REMNANTS OF OTTO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING S ALONG 22N51W TO 16N55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 25N49W WHICH IS SE OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CENTER.

E ATLANTIC...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS ALL OF THE TROPICAL ATLC AND THE
E ATLC S OF 24N W OF THE NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC. LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N35W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO
24N30W. A NARROW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 24N30W NNW TO THE E OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC BEYOND 32N32W. AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION
THROUGH 32N26W SSW TO 14N35W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE E ATLC FROM N OF THE ITCZ TO 25N
BETWEEN 30W-45W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA. OVER THE NE ATLC A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS WITH THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS JUST N OF
THE REGION AND CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 25N E OF 21W TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA...SPAIN AND PORTUGAL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY UPPER AIR
SURROUNDS THE UPPER CIRCULATION WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE BEYOND
33N18W OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N17W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR
31N6W. THIS IS RESTRICTING CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY TO N
OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE



WWWW
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