[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI 03 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N26W 9N53W 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 15W-33W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 36W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLANTIC...AND W CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF W CUBA NEAR
21N83W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE INTO THE W ATLC BEYOND
32N72W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS ALL OF THE GULF...THE W ATLC N
OF 20N W OF 70W...AND THE CARIBBEAN NW OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N70W TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 12N84W. AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
32N79W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE GULF NEAR 27N83W TO 25N87W WHERE IT CONTINUES
W AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO A SECOND WEAK 1015 MB LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N97W THEN DISSIPATES S INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. MOST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN THE DRY UPPER AIR
THUS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ONLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS.
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE N GULF/SE
UNITED STATES INTO THE W ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE
AREA N OF 24N W OF 90W AND N OF 27 FROM 70W-90W. JET STREAM IS
ALONG THE N PORTION OF THIS PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS TEXAS AND
THE SE UNITED STATES WITH WINDS OF 80-110 KT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE AREA S OF 27N W OF 73W OVER THE
YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND E CARIBBEAN...
NARROW TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 33N40W SW THROUGH A SMALLER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 26N49W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OTTO...CONTINUING
SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
VERY DRY AIR ARE NW OF A LINE FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
11N69W THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 24N44W. AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE RIDGE OF THE W CARIBBEAN
IS PRODUCING A LINE OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM S HAITI TO OVER NICARAGUA. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1002 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N50W...REMNANTS OF
OTTO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 26N49W
WHICH IS SE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.

E ATLANTIC...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS ALL OF THE TROPICAL ATLC AND THE
E ATLC S OF 24N W OF THE NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC. LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N51W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE
TO 24N30W. A NARROW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 24N30W NW TO THE E
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC BEYOND 32N33W. AT THE
SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE W EDGE OF THE FLOW
FROM 28N43W SW ALONG 23N44W TO THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N58W.
THIS FLOW IS ALSO DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE E ATLC FROM
N OF THE ITCZ TO 25N BETWEEN 30W-50W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. OVER THE NE ATLC A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS WITH THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS JUST N OF
THE REGION AND CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 26N E OF 22W TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA...SPAIN AND PORTUGAL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY UPPER AIR
SURROUNDS THE UPPER CIRCULATION WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE BEYOND
33N21W OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR28N14W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR
30N8W. THIS IS RESTRICTING CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY TO N
OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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