[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 022353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU 02 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N25W 6N40W 10N50W 9N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 39W-48W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15W-32W BETWEEN 3N-7N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
PATTERN IS EVOLVING RATHER SLOWLY WITH THE AREA CONTINUING UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH.  THE FEATURE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN RIDGING ENE INTO THE W
ATLC THRU THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 26N60W.  BAND OF PAC MOISTURE
BRINGING COPIOUS HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SRN USA EXTENDS ALONG THE
N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL JET.  S OF THE
JET... STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVER THE AREA.  AT THE
SURFACE... WEAK 1015 MB LOW HAS FORMED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
ENE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH A FRONT STATIONARY NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL JUST S TO TAMPA ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 25N88W INTO
ANOTHER WEAK LOW NEAR 24N96W THEN SSE TO TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC IN S MEXICO.  STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLC FROM
30N70W TO 31N74W AND A NARROW 90-120 NM WIDE BAND OF OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY WITH
SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS TO THE NORTH.  COLD FRONT IS
MAKING LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS IN THE ATLC...SKIRTING THE
NORTHERN PART ONLY.  IN THE GULF...GENERALLY BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS REMAIN NW OF THE FRONT W OF 90W TO THE N GULF COAST WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING OVER S TEXAS.  OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS PERSIST SAVE A NARROW SHOWER BAND OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.  CLOUDINESS AND RAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
OVER THE W GULF DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
RETREATS SLOWLY NWD AND INTERACTS WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE SRN USA.  MEANWHILE
OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GET
PUSHED S TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE USA.

CARIBBEAN...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGGING S FROM
NEAR ANTIGUA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PANAMA.  TROUGH IS THE
DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN DEEPER CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
AND VERY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN...LEADING TO ONLY SOME ISOLATED
CONVERGENCE LINE SHOWERS.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE SHOWER
LINES IS FROM SW HAITI TO N NICARAGUA.  SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO
NOTED FROM THE ABC ISLANDS EWD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW FAVORS CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS ALONG
WINDWARD FACING SLOPES IN CENTRAL AMERICA.  INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ARE LIKELY FOR THE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 71W OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE MIGRATES W UNDER
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE CARIBBEAN UPPER TROUGH.

CENTRAL/E ATLANTIC...
REMNANTS OF OTTO IS NOW AN 1000 MB LOW NEAR 29N50W MOVING S 5 KT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE LOW IN THE S
SEMICIRCLE AS WELL AS MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITHIN 200 NM OF
THE CENTER.  DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
FROM 32N42W TO 17N62W.  CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE WESTWARD TO THE W
ATLC.  E OF THE TROUGH...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SURGING NWD
AND SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 600 NM E OF A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH FROM
30N40W 21N46W 15N55W.  AZORES RIDGE IS WEAKER-THAN-AVERAGE WITH
RIDGING ALONG 32N27W 20N36W...CONTRIBUTING TO MUCH WARMER-THAN-
AVERAGE WATERS IN THE CENTRAL/E ATLC.  BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE E ATLC SAVE AN UPPER LOW NEAR
PORTUGAL WHICH CLIPS THE AREA NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
BLAKE

WWWW
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