[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU 02 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION OTTO IS LOCATED NEAR
28.8N 50.6W AT 02/1500 UTC MOVING S 6 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT AND THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 995 MB.  SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER TCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT  OTTO IS NEARLY VOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW. INTERMITTENT
BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...MAINLY OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE...BUT NW SHEAR SHOULD RESTRICT
REGENERATION.  CURRENTLY...A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM SE QUADRANT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N1W 5N35W 9N55W 3N80W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 10W-23W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 23W-43W.  SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GLFMEX REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEWD INTO THE
W ATLC OVER THE BAHAMAS. A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDS
ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG A 100-120 KT SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE S UNITED STATES.  S
OF THE JET...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA.  AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
BERMUDA CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA IN BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE GLFMEX
ALONG 25N87W 25N95W TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN S MEXICO.
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOSE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
RESULTING IN NO DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER....BROKEN TO
LOCALLY OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN N OF THE FRONT TO THE N GULF COAST.  SE OF
FRONT...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL SAVE A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE W GLFMEX DURING THE
NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE STATIONARY FRONT RETREATS SLOWLY NWD AND
INTERACTS WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE S UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE OVER THE E
GLFMEX AND FLORIDA...THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY AND
TONIGHT THEN GET PUSHED SWD TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE UNITED STATES.

CARIBBEAN...
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUING TO BISECT THE AREA FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
PANAMA.  THE TROUGH DELINEATES AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND A MOIST 40-60 KT
UPPER JET TO THE EAST.  THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
JET/TROUGH REMAIN E OF THE AREA BUT STREAKS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
CONTINUE OVER THE EXTREME SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE PATCHES OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOT THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS OF THIS
ACTIVITY ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE FROM W HISPANIOLA TO N
NICARAGUA.  SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO NOTED FROM THE ABC ISLANDS
EWD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  MODERATE LOW LEVEL NE FLOW IS
ALSO FAVORING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ALONG WINDWARD FACING
SLOPES IN CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
THE W ATLANTIC REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE
MIDDLE TO UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NEWD OVER THE BAHAMAS TO BEYOND
32N57W.  A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SWD OVER THE AREA FROM BERMUDA
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT HAS LOST MOST OF ITS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND GRADUALLY BECOMING STATIONARY.  A NARROW
90-120 NM WIDE BAND OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY WITH BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS TO THE
NORTH.  THE FRONT WILL MAKE MINIMAL SWD PROGRESS DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS PRIOR TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
UNITED STATES PUSHING IT SWD TOMORROW. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N40W TO 17N62W.  CONFLUENT
FLOW OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS.  E
OF THE TROUGH...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SURGING NWD AND
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 600 NM E OF A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 30N40W 15N55W.  THE BROAD TROUGH SPLITS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONFINED TO THE W ATLC AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND E ATLC FROM THE AZORES TO 20N40W. BROAD MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE E ATLC SAVE AN UPPER LOW NEAR
PORTUGAL WHICH CLIPS THE AREA NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
JR




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