[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI 03 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 5N34W 4N51W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 26W-37W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 21W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTHWARD DUE TO AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
COMING THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS ALONG
THE N GULF COAST WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS SPREADING ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT LIES FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS SW TO
23N87W THEN STATIONARY TO 24N93W BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT INTO A 1013 MB LOW ABOUT 30 NM NE OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS.  SFC TROF EXTENDS S OF THE LOW OFF THE MEXICAN COAST TO
NEAR 18N95W. DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK/MODERATE FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN
89W-95W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER S TEXAS/ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS AROUND THE SFC LOW.

CARIBBEAN...
NARROWING MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC.  TAIL END OF A DEEP ATLC TROF EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN
FROM ABOUT GUADELOUPE TO 14N70W TO E PANAMA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROF AND THE DRY AIR EXTENDS
NW THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN.  DIVERGENCE/LIFT ON THE E SIDE OF
THE TROUGH IS BOOSTING RAIN CHANCES IN THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM THE
ABC ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF GUADELOUPE.
MOIST NE FLOW IS LEADING TO UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS/ SHOWERS UP ALONG
THE E SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN MOUNTAINS FROM BELIZE TO
NICARAGUA.  INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE
MAIN TROUGH AND MIGRATES WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND.

WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING BERMUDA NEAR 32N68W SW TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS WITH A ROPE CLOUD AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL TO ABOUT 60W THEN
TRANSITIONS TO A TROF FROM 32N38W TO 18N49W INTO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE.  THE REMNANTS OF OTTO ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE UPPER TROF...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD NEAR 26N50.5W WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM TO THE SE.  SFC TROF IS LOCATED
FARTHER E ALONG 32N37W 25N34W AND IS COLLOCATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N PRODUCING SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION FROM
28N-32N BETWEEN 33W-36W. FARTHER S IN THE TROPICS...A LOW-LEVEL
TROF IS LOCATED N OF FRENCH GUIANA ALONG 6N53W 14N50W BUT STRONG
WLY SHEAR IS POSITIONING ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE E FROM
8N-13N BETWEEN 40W-49W.

EAST ATLANTIC...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
21N-27N BETWEEN 30W-40W EXTENDS FROM THE S/CNTRL ATLC NEWD TO
THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC FORCED BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLC TROF AND
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED DEEP IN THE TROPICS NEAR
7N32W. UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE E OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ UNTIL ABOUT 20W.
ELSEWHERE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH MULTIPLE INTERNAL
CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM SPAIN TO CNTRL MOROCCO AND THE CANARY
ISLANDS WITH DRIER/COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO NW AFRICA BUTTING
UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN ATLAS MOUNTAINS.

$$
BLAKE

WWWW
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